Covid Trends, Vaccine Updates, New Report on Qanon, and a Boatload of Disinformation
Vol 21 Issue 8
Outline
Covid Update
What explains the steep drop in cases and what does it mean for the US?
A quick way to check if a country is accurately reporting cases and deaths
Hoaxlines Disinformation Report
from Novel Science
Headlines to Read
Covid Update
Globally, as of 11:44 am CET, 2 March 2021, WHO report 113,989,973 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 2,531,542 deaths. The US accounts for around 20% of deaths globally although we only account for 4% of the global population.
1 death to 500k- 171 days
500k to 1 million- 91 days
1 to 1.5 million- 66 days
1.5 to 2 million- 43 days
2 to 2.5 million- 41 days
CDC reports 28.4 million total cases and 511,839 deaths as of 11:45 am EST on Tuesday, March 2, 2021.
After steep declines since mid-January 2021, the average daily incidence increased for 2 consecutive days, up to 66,347 new cases per day. Daily mortality increased slightly as well, once again above 2,000 deaths per day.
Some of these increases could be attributable to depressed or delayed reporting the previous week as a result of the President’s Day holiday and severe winter weather.
The US surpassed 500,000 cumulative deaths on February 23, less than 1 year from the first reported death on February 29, 2020. Despite reaching this tragic milestone, the number of people dying each day has declined in recent weeks:
1 death to 50k- 55 days
50k to 100k- 33 days
100k to 150k- 63 days
150k to 200k- 55 days
200k to 250k- 58 days
250k to 300k- 25 days
300k to 350k- 20 days
350k to 400k- 16 days
400k to 450k- 16 days
450k to 500k- 19 days
What explains the steep drop in cases and what does it mean for the US?
First, the case decline is fantastic news. Second, we must be careful not to repeat our mistakes. Throughout the pandemic as soon as we saw the progress we quit. It would be like seeing the scale go in the right direction and going back to not working out/eating poorly or seeing the finishing line and walking off the track.
We are in an arms race with variants. If we lose, things in the US could get much worse, so let's focus on this success and how we can win this race. No one factor drove cases down; instead, a collection of factors that made smaller differences added up to a big positive impact. The evidence seems to suggest these key elements are responsible:
1) Immunity (both natural and from vaccination, with natural accounting for 20-25% and vaccination 15%)
Factoring in the 13% of Americans who definitely don’t want the vaccine and the 7% who would get it only if it was required means just 49.5% of Americans would have immunity in the near future.
Faster spreading variants will require a higher level of herd immunity. For COVID-19, the herd-immunity threshold may have been as low as 50% to 60% when the pandemic began but with variants becoming dominant and spreading faster, we may require as much as 90%--similar to the coverage needed to control measles.
Strategic immunity may play a big role. People who were unable to avoid infection and who were going to spread it to others may have already done so or been vaccinated because they were a frontline worker or a teacher.
With smallpox, for example, the late great DA Henderson--the man who led the world to eradicate smallpox--advised ring vaccination instead of trying to vaccinate everyone. Remember crises are not ideal and you have to be judicious and realistic.
Ring vaccination means vaccinating the contacts of any confirmed smallpox patients and the contacts of the contacts. It would be the first-line strategy in a smallpox emergency. The idea may sound scary, like it may not be enough for such a serious situation, but it makes sense to trust the people who eradicated smallpox on whether it can be contained this way.
Bottom Line: Herd immunity/vaccination alone will not be an answer to this, for many reasons. If enough people remain susceptible, the virus will continue to spread and mutate. That creates the possibility for a mutation that renders all vaccines and natural immunity useless and the pandemic could start over. We want to avoid that scenario.
2) More people report wearing masks at all times in public and regularly distancing, especially after the post-holiday travel surge.
People who weren't taking precautions may already have caught Covid now that we're a year into this pandemic. There are still plenty of people who can catch the virus but they may be people who are taking precautions or whose work puts them at a lower risk.
3) Regardless of if a virus is pandemic or seasonal, with rare exceptions, cold weather favors its spread.
People gather indoors more when it’s cold and the dry air. A study through Mayo Clinic in 2013, estimated that running an air humidifier in a school for one hour could kill around 30% of the viruses in the air. Considering this in reverse, increased dryness could lengthen the time a virus in the air could still infect people.
This principle, where the cold season favors the spread of a virus, has been misunderstood to mean that warm weather must kill viruses. That may be true for some viruses but as we learned this summer, it's not true for coronavirus.
4) The holidays are over and with them, the uptick in travel.
Holiday travel drove cases sky high in November, December, and January. After the holidays, especially following the Capitol attack, people stayed home.
Look at the case peak during the summer, before the cold and holiday traveling. Quickly, it becomes clear that while we're doing well compared to November, December, and January, we're not doing well in the objective sense. We’re confirming as many cases as we did mid-summer.
5) Empathy. We care about what affects us personally. That's just how we are as a species.
We have 600,000 excess deaths in the US. 500,000 of those are recognized as related to or caused by Covid. Wealth is a known crusher of empathy, so Americans were probably less compassionate anyhow. That may mean when the issue affected us, the effect was dramatic.
For every one of the 500,000 Covid deaths, about nine people are grieving. That’s 4.5 million Americans grieving a loss that was preventable. Realities like this tend to temper science denial.
Many people changed their stance on the pandemic after catching Covid (28+million Americans) or after having someone die from it. A massive study that took place across 27 countries showed that the one thing that motivates people regardless of where or how they live is caring for loved ones. If those loved ones suffer, we change our attitude.
6) Reductions in testing may have contributed to some of the apparent case declines but tests have increased again and the decline is holding.
That suggests a true decline. If the percent positive were increasing with the number of tests staying the same, for example, that might mean cases are rising.
A drop-in testing starting in early January may explain some of the declines but tests are rising again. Cases are holding or increasing only modest amounts, which says a lot of the decline may have been real.
Hawaii, Vermont, Oregon, and Washington had some of the lowest cases per million over the year.
How to Tell If Reported Cases and Deaths Are Accurate
Note: This is not how an expert would assess the numbers and is only intended to help lay readers better understand.
When scientists say the US has had one of the worst responses and outbreak trajectory, that’s a statement dictated by the evidence. In Russia, where the government reported that Covid was under control, the excess deaths told the truth.
What’s remarkable is that Russia has likely suffered fewer pandemic deaths but its climate favors the spread in comparison to weather in the Southern United States. Let’s look at these graphs and you’ll see how what underreporting looks like.
Disinformation Report Vol 21 Issue 8
The disinformation narratives appearing globally have fallen under well-known tropes. Click the stories for details like where we found the story, an assessment of claims, and sources for further reading. To see sources, claims, and the full assessments for each story, click the button below.
Pfizer Vaccine Assessed As “Experimental” In US
Rating: False
Published: 2/6/2021
Submitted: 2/28/2021
Outlet: Facebook
Author: Дима Фридом (Dima Freedom)
Location: Russia
West Working to Keep Russian Vaccine Out of Market
Ratings: False
Published: 2/22/2021
Submitted: 2/25/2021
Outlet: Sputnik Armenia
Author: Unsigned
Location: Armenia, Russia
Vaccines contain luciferase and spread the seal of Antichrist
Ratings: False
Published: 2/7/2021
Submitted: 2/17/2021
Outlet: Kvakutkhedi
Author: Khatuna Saghinashvili
Location: Georgia, Russia
A lecture was held in Pentagon in 2005 on how to replace the “God Gene” in humans
Ratings: False
Published: 2/5/2021
Submitted: 2/17/2021
Outlet: Facebook
Author: Fake Account
Location: Russia, Georgia
Coronavirus vaccine causes strong tremors
Ratings: False
Published: 2/4/2021
Submitted: 2/17/2021
Outlet: Facebook
Author: Kakha Kakhadze
Location: Georgia, Russia
Louisiana Woman Convulses Uncontrollably After Being Injected with the Experimental Pfizer COVID Shot — “I can’t stand to see my mom this way it makes me want to cry knowing I can’t do anything to help her.”
Ratings: False
Published: 1/13/2021
Submitted: 2/17/2021
Outlet: Facebook, Bitchute
Author: Brant Griner, Angelia Gipson Desselle
Location: USA
Stand up to the plans of the new world order — the Antichrist — 666! Be careful and attentive !!!
Ratings: False
Published: 12/7/2020
Submitted: 2/17/2021
Outlet: Tvalsazrisi.ge
Author: Father Kleomenis
Location: Georgia
VaxTracker is a new vaccine reaction website
Ratings: False
Published: 2/3/2021
Submitted: 2/16/2021
Outlet: ChildrensHealthDefense.Org
Author: Unknown
Location: USA
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“And upside risks to our...growth forecast are building if the Democrat-controlled government can pass the additional stimulus. The high level of virus cases is extremely disheartening but the more that the virus weighs on growth, the more likely that stimulus will be passed.” For a Reuters poll graphic on the U.S. economic outlook:
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