Pro-Kremlin channels share Russian flag-raising videos in Ukrainian cities they haven't taken
Groups sharing the content were not limited to Russian-affiliated channels. QAnon followers and extremist groups shared content showing either Russian success or support for Russia globally.
The following is a working (unfinished) research report that has not been peer-reviewed. A table showing the data has been included in an appendix section.1
Summary
Flags are an easily identifiable expression of support that transcends language. Pro-Kremlin accounts are circulating images and videos of either foreign rallies supporting Russia or the posts claiming that a Russian flag has been raised in a Ukrainian town. We wanted to examine how the Russian state used the Russian flag in messaging after seeing it circulate in videos showing rallies and flags being raised in cities not under Russian control.
In some cases, as with the two most-mentioned locations, Mariupol and Kherson, the Russian occupation’s claims are repeated over and over, as if they claimed some cities multiple times. Kherson was violently occupied by Russian forces for weeks, while Mariupol has resisted.
The aim of the messaging remains unknown, but we have made some observations. Groups sharing the content were not limited to Russian-affiliated channels. QAnon followers and extremist groups shared content showing either Russian success or support for Russia globally.
Big Picture
The top three locations mentioned in flag-raising posts were Mariupol, Kherson, and Kakhovka. If we include the international rallies, then Kakhovka is replaced by Germany.
Germany (Berlin specifically) was the most common foreign location named in pro-Kremlin channel messages that mentioned rallies supporting Russia with the Russian flag.
IntelSlava, EurasianChoice, and UkrWarRep shared the most messages, whether we limited the dataset to locations within Ukraine or expanded the dataset to include supportive rallies globally.
Extremist and conspiracy groups share pro-Russian rallies
QAnon followers and extremist groups shared content showing either Russian success or support for Russia globally.
Nick Fuentes, realJohnQuent, Qthestormrider777, BandofBrothersQ, and TrumpIntel, forwarded messages showing the pro-Russian support in Germany directly from IntelSlava.
WhiteLivesMatter818 referenced the German rallies saying:
"I advise you to note, Jews who live in Israel, Germany make passes with Russian flags on their cars every day. They don't give a fuck that their babin yar were bombed by the Russians. Israel didn't give Ukraine any weapons, so they don't give a fuck. And the January 1 march in honor of Stepan Bandera's birthday was sued and told it was Nazi."
Contextual details
The messages are in English, which may indicate an effort to reach a foreign audience and not Ukrainians.
The show of support at rallies is distinct from flag-raising in Ukrainian cities, so we examined the data separately and together.
Trends in messaging
It seems like videos showing Russian flags raised in Ukrainian cities precede Russia actually taking the cities or after losing control of a city as with Kherson. There may be no relationship and there are plenty of limitations to this analysis.
Messaging about Mariupol increased in late March and early April. This comes as Mariupol hangs in the balance. Deaths in Mariupol may have reached as many as 20,000, according to estimates given to CNN:
"The Mariupol situation makes it difficult to comment on the number of casualties, the city is under siege and blockaded," Pavlo Kyrylenko, the head of the Donetsk regional military administration, told CNN. "We are currently discussing 20,000 to 22,000 people dead in Mariupol."
There was a cluster of messaging about Kherson and Kakhovka early in the invasion.
Kherson also appeared in messaging in early April. The city was reportedly under Russian control in early March, and then, in late March, there were conflicting reports about Russians losing control of Kherson. The Telegraph reported on April 11:
Russian soldiers have torn down the Ukrainian flag flying above Kherson's main administrative building and raised Russia's tricolour, reflecting increasingly aggressive rhetoric coming from the Kremlin that Ukraine should be wiped off the map. On Sunday, an online video emerged showing a handful of men standing in the central square in Kherson waving Russian flags and looking bored.
On April 10, Interfax-Ukraine stated:
As a result of a failed offensive, the Russian occupying troops suffered losses in a company task force in Kherson region near the village of Oleksandrivka, adviser to the President's Office head Oleksiy Arestovych said.
On April 11, the General Staff of the Armed Forces wrote on Facebook that Russian troops continue to make attempts to improve their situation regarding Kherson.
Mentions grouped by the location
Hoaxlines collected data from a set of known pro-Kremlin and Russian state-affiliated Telegram channels. Mariupol and Kherson were the most-mentioned locations. Kakhovka was a distant third, mentioned fewer than half as many times.
When we look at the messages showing support for Russia internationally, Germany emerges as the most mentioned location and the third most mentioned location overall. Other locations mentioned with either image, video, or mentions of the Russian flag include Cyprus, Serbia, France, Burkina Faso, and Israel.
Mentioned grouped by the channel sharing the message
We grouped the messages by channels sharing them. Whether we limited the data to flag-raisings in Ukraine or included the rallies in support of Russia internationally, the channels sharing the most messages changed very little.
Including the international rallies in support of Russia added new channels. Still, the same channels sharing the flag-raising content about places in Ukraine also posted about the rallies supporting Russia, so their rankings did not change.
Selection Criteria for messages
Telegram message or post
posted or sent in 2022
mentions or shows a Russian flag being raised in Ukraine
OR
mentions or shows a rally in support of Russia with the Russian flag
Did we miss a Telegram message?
If we have missed a qualifying message, please fill out this form, and if it meets the criterion, it will be added to the database.
Appendix
Table showing data used in this report.
