Using the high and low estimates per day, Russian losses may number between 8100 and 27000
If we assume 300 losses per day to be the lowest rate of loss for the war and the high-end estimate to be 1000, then we get a possible range of 8100 to 27,000 deaths.
Early in the war we saw nearly 1000 Russian deaths per day, according to estimates from the Ukrainian government. Although the numbers were so high as to lead some to doubt their accuracy, Western intelligence reported that Russian losses were as much as 1000 soldiers per day on March 20, 2022. The estimate suggests that the Ukrainians early reports may be accurate. Our estimate should not supersede credible sources and reliable reporting. It is more an exercise in examining reporting on Russian losses thus far and what we can learn from it.
From the start of the war until March 8–day 12 of the Russian invasion–the Ukrainians report around 1000 Russian losses per day. On the 9th, Russia bombed the maternity hospital and began striking more blatantly civilian targets like a drama theatre with the word “children” drawn on the sidewalk. The barbarity of their actions and the increasingly dire situation juxtaposed against the tenacity shown by the Ukrainian forces, makes it difficult to believe that there were no Russian deaths from March 8 to March 14, although the estimates stay at 12,000 through those dates.
The recent estimates hover around 300 Russian losses per day, but it’s unclear what their methodology is, whether it’s changed, and how they account for deaths that may occur beyond their ability to confirm. Still, 300 is the lowest consistent rate aside from days with no change.
If we assume 300 losses per day to be the lowest rate of loss for the war and the high-end estimate to be 1000, then we get a possible range of 8,100 to 27,000 deaths.
If from that we estimate the wounded number to be twice that of the deaths, then the total casualties may be as high as 54,000.
We used two times the number of deaths because the confirmed losses more closely resemble those of the Civil War-era than modern warfare, the soldiers’ limited situational awareness and lack of experience, and the logistics are not being in place for the Russian military to save people with survivable injuries. The United States has seen the injury-to-death ratio from 10:1 to 17:1 in modern conflicts, and NATO used 3:1 in its recent estimate.
Timeline for reported Russian losses
Feb 24 - 0 - Start of full-scale war
War starts with Russia offensive attack
Feb 27 - 4300 - 3 days
March 2 - 5,840 - 6 days
March 3 - 9,000 – 7 days
March 4 - 9,166 - 8 days
March 5 - 10,000 - 9 days
March 6 - 11,000 - 10 days
March 7 - 11,000 - 11 days
March 8 - 12,000 - 12 days
On March 9, Russia began hitting civilian targets like the maternity hospital in Mariupol.
March 10 - 12,000 - 14 days
March 11 - 12,000 - 15 days
March 12 - 12,000 - 16 days
March 14 - 12,000 - 18 days
Six days pass with no reported change after previously adding nearly a 1000 per day.
March 16 - 13,800 - 20 days
March 17 - 14,000 - 21 days
March 18 - 14,200 - 22 days
March 19 - 14,400 - 23 days
March 20 - 14,700 - 24 days
Western intelligence estimates Russia has lost up to 1000 soldiers per day, which fits with the estimates made by the Ukrainians prior to March 10.
March 21 - 15,000 - 25 days
March 22 - 15,300 - 26 days
March 23 - 15,600 - 27 days
NATO estimates that 40,000 Russian soldiers have gone missing, been injured, or been killed in 27 days, calculating based on Ukrainian estimates for killed-in-action.