Threats, Fact Checks, and Reads #3.23.21
Boulder shooting, data on immigration and the US-Mexico border, vaccine fact checks, and some disinformation research
Threats
Suspect in Boulder mass shooting charged with 10 counts of murder
Boulder police announced Tuesday the suspect in the mass shooting at a King Soopers grocery store Monday is now facing 10 counts of first-degree murder.
Ahmad Al Aliwi Alissa, 21, of Arvada, Colorado, was injured in an exchange of gunfire with police and transported to a hospital for treatment according to a city statement.
The Political Response:
From Nowhere News
The Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday conducted a hearing, scheduled before Boulder’s mass shooting, on reducing gun violence that highlighted the divide between Democratic and Republican lawmakers.
Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin (D-IL) asked, “What are we doing other than reflecting and praying?"
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said the panel’s hearing was "ridiculous theater.”
To honor the victims, President Joe Biden ordered the U.S. flag to be flown at half-staff until sunset on March 27.
DEMOCRATS:
Inaction is complicity.
Inaction has made this horror completely predictable,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) during the hearing. “Inaction by this Congress makes us complicit.”
REPUBLICANS:
Congress should not overreach.
"We have a lot of drunk drivers in America," Judiciary panel member Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) argued, using an analogy. He said that “the answer is not to get rid of all sober drivers” but “to concentrate on the problem.”
Border Surge: Blame eagerly tossed around but little in the way of evidence-based discussion
The graphs and information from this section will eventually be published as an independent article for those interested. It will be linked in a subsequent newsletter.
A great deal of disinformation on the border situation has gone out and we’re hearing wildly disparate stories. Disinformation related to this subject is at an absolute fever-pitch right now with coordinated messaging, doctored videos, and misleading claims from even the highest of offices.
On one hand, we have people making apocalyptic claims, and on the other, we have people saying there is no situation. Neither is true. We place this under threat, not because the border situation necessarily is one, but because we have people who perceive that it is to an extreme and that can be dangerous.
Here’s some context because the headlines differ so much it’s hard to believe they’re covering the same subject. Rather than telling you what to think, let’s look at the numbers and examine some concrete realities the US must face.
People at the US-Mexico Border
The graph of data from US Customs and Border Patrol shows that while we have a situation that requires attention, there have been far higher numbers in very recent history.
A crisis is a term that requires:
Something unforeseeable
Potential harm
Short time to make decision
Public and leadership perception that it is a crisis
The definition is subjective. So is it a crisis? That’s up to you to decide.
We saw higher numbers from 2018 to 2019, and the caravans resolved through policy rather than a barrier to the US. Analyses have shown time and time again that a wall would be ineffective.
Rather than even approaching an ideological objection, most experts' issue with the wall is that it’s a waste of money and changes nothing--even if you were in favor of the purported goal. Facts are friends; they help us do better. (In-depth look at the Wall from USATODAY)
The funds would be far more helpful if directed toward policies that work and help to remedy the problems in South America, specifically the ones the US has direct culpability. We add this because of headlines from outlets attributing border surges to something in the United States.
An immigration policy analyst from the conservative think-tank, the Cato Institute, rated high for factual reporting but also high for political bias, commented:
“Even if you get a sea-to-shining-sea wall, then people would just build ladders, ramps, and other ways — tunnels — in order to get around it,” Bier said. “It’s just not reflective of the reality, which is people will come if they want to come.”
The number of people showing up at the border has to do with the situation in South America.
Some headlines have assumed surges are the result of the current President, but the data show it affects this little.
The mass migration that happened in 2018 and 2019, had high monthly numbers. It’s unlikely that surge meant that people felt more welcome than in 2017.
Border encounters started to rise in October of 2020.
Numbers remained elevated and sharply increased at the same time we saw a similar rapid increase in 2019. The numbers take off in January, something we saw it do in 2019 as well.
The data viewed together show we cannot assume the uptick is related to the President as he did not change in Jan of 2019, and we still saw a large increase.
The refugee ceiling has been quite low in the past two decades.
HHS commissioned a study in 2017 on the cost of refugees to the United States. The study found a significant return on investment but was never published.
The study found refugees “contributed an estimated $269.1 billion in revenues to all levels of government” between 2005 and 2014 through the payment of federal, state, and local taxes.
The White House responded to the leak saying, “This leak was delivered by someone with an ideological agenda, not someone looking at hard data.”
The final report included no refutation of the leaked numbers, which appear to be accurately analyzed. Thus, the White House claim remains unsupported.
The final report stated refugees cost the government $3300 per year versus $2500 for the average American but omitted any return on investment, which is highly unusual for a report on cost.
No one disputes that they may cost more initially, only that in the long term we see an economic benefit.
We Have A Problem That We Need to Face
The US is the least friendly developed country in terms of having a family. Notably having no guaranteed paid leave, expensive health insurance and services, expensive childcare, and the cost of education has risen at 8x the rate of wages, which have not kept up with inflation.
While the national minimum wage did rise roughly in step with productivity growth from its inception in 1938 until 1968, in the more than five decades since then, it has not even kept pace with inflation. However, if the minimum wage did rise in step with productivity growth since 1968 it would be over $24 an hour today, as shown in the Figure below.
We will need to make the country more family-friendly or risk dropping below population replacement, meaning everything loses value: houses, commercial properties, everything. As we found out the first time we tried isolationism, you have to have a plan for what comes from that or you will face a major economic downturn.
“The Great Depression of the 1930s was a global event that derived in part from events in the United States and U.S. financial policies. As it lingered through the decade, it influenced U.S. foreign policies in such a way that the United States Government became even more isolationist.”
We must also examine what is not causing the fertility rate decline. As usual, data has an answer.
Surprisingly, given the widespread belief, legalized abortion and hormonal contraception appear unrelated to fertility rate decline.
US Fertility Rate, 1800 to 2020, compared to abortions per year and per live birth depicted on a dual y-axis graph.
The number of children born to a woman declined steadily from 1800 to 1940, peaked around 1955 to 1960 and returned to its previous low. It has done so in multiple other countries. Baby boomers were born up through 1964 so the decline may reflect the end of the post-war baby boom.
Legislation, regulation, and religious pronouncements appear to have little or no effect on the number of children born to a woman in the United States over the past 160 years.
We found a similar pattern in other countries (We will be publishing that soon for those interested in examining the information). Although our analyses were too superficial to say with certainty, child mortality appears to be the greatest determining factor for fertility rate, which makes sense. Abortion legislation appears to have been ineffective which mirrors what studies find on the state level.
Bottom Line: The fertility rate makes clear that the decline is neither recent nor the result of abortion or hormonal contraceptive use. The US birthrate has fallen low enough that we might see economic decline down the road.
Unlike many other countries, we resolve this issue by accepting new citizens who sometimes require an investment before going on to pay more in taxes than is ever invested in them. A cost-benefit study from the George W. Bush Presidential Center:
When immigrants enter the labor force, they increase the productive capacity of the economy and raise GDP. Their incomes rise, but so do those of natives. It’s a phenomenon dubbed the “immigration surplus.
Immigration has net benefits. The fact that it has some costs is not a reason to bar it, but rather to manage it.
—George W. Bush Presidential Center
Immigration is a viable solution given the HHS research into the cost of refugees found a return-on-investment and a benefit to wages for everyone in their communities.
We must think critically about this issue that affects all Americans and root our decisions in sound evidence rather than emotion or fear.
Vaccines
US health officials raise 'concern' about AstraZeneca vaccine data
from Nowhere News
The National Institute of Health’s Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) in a statement released early Tuesday said an independent panel of experts that has been overseeing the trial had “expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data.”
U.S. authorities last year said they believed the company was not being direct about the design of its clinical trials, its safety issues and results. The company had previously acknowledged a mistake in the vaccine dosage received by some study participants.
NOTE: Americans have not had access to the Astrazeneca vaccine. President Biden was planning to withhold the Astrazeneca vaccine over concerns about safety.
He came under fire when he also refused to sell it to other countries that were willing to use it. Then, within the past week, he decided to share doses with Mexico and Canada.
Whether the vaccine is safe, it’s likely Americans would be highly reluctant to accept it and we have more doses of a more effective vaccine coming, that may be the rationale.
Strategically Canada and Mexico containing their outbreaks have a significant impact on the US, so sharing with those countries benefits the US most.
Fact Checks
Anti-lockdown groups promote misleading claims about face masks as 'fact check'
from AFP Factcheck
A Facebook post in South Africa makes several claims about masks, including that they are ineffective in preventing the spread of Covid-19 in the general population and that they inhibit children’s social development. But these allegations are missing context: health experts say masks reduce virus transmission when worn properly. AFP Fact Check has previously debunked similar claims about masks affecting children’s psychological evolution.
from Healthfeedback.org
Claim: COVID-19 mass vaccination will select for more virulent variants of the virus that causes COVID-19, which will escape vaccine-induced immunity and cause more severe disease
Assessment: No evidence indicates that vaccination will lead to more virulent variants of the virus that causes COVID-19. The claims that vaccination will select for viral variants that can escape vaccine-induced immunity and cause more severe disease than those that evolve naturally in unvaccinated populations are unsupported.
Preliminary data suggest that COVID-19 vaccines very likely reduce viral transmission to some degree, contrary to Vanden Bosschen’s claim.
COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective at preventing disease and also confer partial protection against variants of the virus.
Furthermore, COVID-19 vaccines can be reformulated if needed to match new variants.
Vaccines stimulate the humoral immune response without weakening innate immunity. Immunization may even enhance natural antibody response.
Emerging variants of the virus that causes COVID-19, some of which are more transmissible, have led to speculation about the efficacy of current COVID-19 vaccines.
Emerging variants are subject to continuous monitoring to evaluate their potential impact on COVID-19 transmission and disease outcomes.
The evidence so far indicates that COVID-19 vaccines still confer partial protection against these variants. COVID-19 vaccines in use can be rapidly modified, and manufacturers are already anticipating new vaccine formulations to improve their efficacy against the new variants.
Do Homeless People Have Access to COVID-19 Stimulus Payments?
from Snopes
Most Americans will receive $1,400, one-time payments as part of the March 2021 federal relief bill. People without permanent homes who do not normally file taxes can submit information to the IRS in order to receive stimulus payments as part of the March 2021 COVID-19 relief bill.
Were AR-15s Used in These Mass Shootings?
from Snopes
A viral meme asserted that AR-15 style weapons have frequently been used to commit deadly acts of violence.
An AR-15 style (the actual name is trademarked but many other companies make weapons identical in form and function) weapon was used in all of the mass shootings mentioned on this list with the exception of one.
The gun used in the Pulse Nightclub shooting in Orlando, Florida, that left 49 people dead in June 2016 was a semi-automatic rifle called the Sig Sauer MCX.
Verdict: Mostly True
From Healthfeedback.org
Claim: “Scientists at Sloan Kettering discover mRNA inactivates tumor-suppressing proteins, meaning it can promote cancer”
Assessment: The study by Memorial Sloan Kettering researchers, which was cited in the article, didn’t find that “mRNA inactivates tumor-suppressing proteins.”
The study examined mRNA that carried instructions for making tumor suppressor proteins. They found that when the mRNA had been changed in certain ways, the resulting tumor suppressor proteins didn’t work properly.
The article’s portrayal of mRNA as “cancer drivers” leaves out a significant amount of context: mRNA is essential for life and a normal component of cells.
Messenger RNA (mRNA) is a normal component of cells in all living organisms. DNA, which carries the genetic information for making proteins, doesn’t interact directly with the protein-making machinery in cells.
Instead, the instructions are relayed by mRNA, leading to the assembly of proteins.
Alterations to mRNA, or post-transcriptional modifications, can modify the properties of the mRNA, including its longevity and the function of the final protein product, thereby influencing biological processes.
Verdict: Misleading
Finishing Trump’s border wall not part of Texas plan
from AFP Factcheck
Social media posts claim that Texas’s “Operation Lone Star” is aimed at completing former US President Donald Trump’s controversial Mexico border wall project, which his successor has moved to end. This is false; officials say the operation does not include wall construction, and announcements on it do not mention border barrier work.
“Texas has launched ‘Operation Lone Star’ to finish the border wall themselves,” says a March 21, 2021, Facebook post.
As of the day, before Biden took office, 458 miles of wall -- most of it to replace existing barriers -- had been completed, while 280 miles had yet to be finished, according to data from US Customs and Border Protection.
Texas launched “Operation Lone Star” on March 6 with the aim of denying “Mexican Cartels and other smugglers the ability to move drugs and people into Texas,” and expanded it 11 days later.
Neither announcement about the operation -- which involves the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) as well as National Guard forces -- mentioned work on Trump’s border wall.
Recommended Reads
Detecting fake news on Facebook: The role of emotional intelligence
from PLOS
People with greater emotional intelligence are better at spotting fake news, so disinformation doesn’t affect people equally.
How we investigated the spread of Covid-19 vaccine misinformation on Facebook
from First Draft
We had a question: Were posts containing the claims still spreading? If so, how many were there, and what kind of reach did they have?
Our investigation focused exclusively on unfounded Covid-19 vaccine claims, such as that the vaccines change people’s DNA.
Using data scraped from Facebook’s insights tool, CrowdTangle, we found at least 3,200 posts, attracting 142,049 likes, shares and comments, that had been posted on the platform after the ban.
From seed to story, it took around a month before we published these and other findings with the WIRED UK. Here are some of the ethical and technical challenges we had to consider and how we addressed them, followed by a step-by-step methodology.
Fringe communities feed on RT coverage to undermine Covid-19 vaccinations
from First Draft
Online anti-vaccination sources are using Russian state-funded media videos targeting the Pfizer vaccine to discredit coronavirus vaccination campaigns more broadly.
Corruption Is a National Security Threat. The CROOK Act Is a Smart Way to Fight It.
from Just Security
Corrupt leaders cling to power through patronage networks and exploit rule-of-law jurisdictions, like the United States, to conceal and protect their stolen assets. These leaders are also accustomed to using strategic corruption as a tool of foreign policy.
Corruption has its most perverse effects on the people who are forced to live under it. Corruption undermines democracy, hollows out the rule of law, and prevents the efficient and fair delivery of government services, as evidenced in the scandals affecting certain pandemic response efforts. Corruption also fuels the rise of authoritarian opportunists who seek to exploit social divisions, restrict freedom, and use public office for personal gain.
Corruption also poses a wider threat to American democracy and prosperity, and to the prosperity of our allies. Almost every major transnational threat—such as human trafficking, black markets, and terrorism—is inextricably linked to corruption.
Slowly but surely, the fight against corruption is gaining momentum worldwide. In Russia, corruption exposed by activist Alexei Navalny has sparked mass protests against a political elite that systematically steals from them. In the past three years alone, outrage against corruption has fueled protests in 32 countries.
Despite these encouraging signs, opportunities to root out corruption remain rare—and when they arise, the window for action closes quickly. To have maximum impact in this fight, the United States needs to be ready to assist anti-corruption reformers on short notice.