Surrender, Surrender Not: A timeline of claims about Ukrainian Marines in Mariupol
We ascertained that Mariupol has not fallen into Russian hands and that whoever remains in the city, soldier or civilian, is still fighting.
The timeline
The first posts on Twitter alleging that soldiers surrendered in Mariupol were posted at 9:48 AM and 9:58 AM CST. Levi_godman threaded a conversation where the user indicated they were waiting for video confirmation and then linked to WarGonzo as evidence.
Both posts came shortly after a message (9:46 AM CST) from WarGonzo on Telegram. WarGonzo stated that a battalion of marines had surrendered in Mariupol, estimating 200 soldiers like the Tweet. No Batallion was mentioned in the WarGonzo post.
Levi_godman references 200 soldiers saying, “Ukrainian marines of the 501st separate battalion of the Marine Corps of the Ukrainian Navy surrendered in Mariupol in full, at that time more than 200 people.”
The Twitter user small_float referenced a “501 AFU marines battalion” and estimated 200 like the WarGonzo post.
In this message, WarGonzo cites Dmitry Sablin as a source. Sablin has since deleted his Telegram message, but source code from an incomplete archive shows that Sablin’s message read, “A battalion of Ukrainian marines surrendered.”
Sablin mentions no unit number or soldier count in the now-deleted message, according to the archive. The archiving time is 15:50:06 April 4, 2022, translating into 9:50 AM CST.
As evidence, the WarGonzo post cites the head of the Combat Brotherhood in a way that sounds like it could be a second individual and not Dmitry Sablin, implying that there were two sources. A review of earlier Telegram messages shows that this post references only Sablin, as he is both the head of the Combat Brotherhood and the Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee. Sablin’s Telegram channel also describes him as “Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, First Deputy Chairman of the All-Russian Organization ‘Battle Brotherhood.’”
A tweet from RWAPodcast (10:02 AM CST) references a “501st Marine Battalion” that surrendered. Hoaxlines found RWAPodcast was the most retweeted user in Hoaxlines’ Bucha Massacre denial tweets for the search term “Azov.”
No soldier count was given in RWApodcast’s tweet, but we did find another reported source for the claims. The WarGonzo post only cited Dmitry Sablin. The only Telegram message we could find—there’s a missing message between No. 10685 and 10683, although it can still be accessed by direct link and does not seem to be about soldier surrenders— about surrenders from Bezsonov was written at 1:32 PM CST:
The military of the DPR, who took the prisoners, declare that the decision of the military personnel of the 36th BMP of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to surrender was influenced both by the hopeless situation that threatened their destruction, and the processing that was constantly carried out through open communication channels, via radio and with the help of leaflets.
The substance of Bezsonov’s message differs from the others because it identifies the soldiers as the military personnel of the 36th BMP of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Bezsonov also credits an earlier propaganda campaign with getting the surrender.
On March 29, Bezsonov forwarded a post that showed “propaganda shells,” which look like large bullets stuffed with leaflets that tell soldiers to surrender for use in Mariupol.
Bezsonov wrote about the surrender in a post published at 1:32 PM CST on April 4, 2022.
A post from 4:14 PM CST from the pro-Russian DPR official listed WarGonzo among recommended sources.
Telegram messages making similar claims
The channel Zluchka Tactical posted a video of the alleged Ukrainian marines at 12:46 PM CST. The number of soldiers is 264 in this post.
The pro-Kremlin channel Intel Slava Z posted that 264 soldiers had surrendered in Mariupol at 12:49 PM CST.
Then, at 1:04 PM CST, Intel Slava Z reported that “267 marines from the 503rd battalion” surrendered, which differs from the 501st Battalion first reported in Levi_godman’s and small_float’s tweets.
At 1:06 PM CST, the pro-Kremlin channel “Swodki” posted the same as the most recent Intel Slava Z post, saying, “Video of 267 Marines of the Naval Forces of Ukraine from the 503rd separate Battalion who surrendered to our troops. Mariupol today.”
Kremlin propaganda outlet News Front repeated the claims from Swodki at 1:10 PM CST, saying, “Video of 267 Marines of the Ukrainian Navy from the 503rd separate battalion who surrendered.”
Intel Slava Z posted about this story at 1:25 PM CST, switching the battalion number for a second time. “501st separate battalion of the Marine Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surrendered. Made smart choices and saved their lives.”
Intel Slava’s second post departed from the earlier posts, which gave a different number of soldiers and different regiments.
Hoaxlines found many new accounts boosting tweets about the surrender, although this does not necessarily indicate veracity. The accounts hyperlinked in the previous sentence retweeted the same tweet from a popular OSINT account, but the Kremlin has historically amplified true, advantageous stories and disinformation ones. While we’ve included the detail for research value, the finding does not indicate whether the claims are true or false.
Other evidence
With Mariupol cut off from humanitarian aid and communication in some cases, we don’t have a precise understanding of what is happening within the city. Tweets related to the surrender video fail to clarify the claims, which vary depending on the source. That said, here are additional details and commentary to consider.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy also told soldiers they could abandon the city around March 27, but the officers refused because they did not want to leave the dead and wounded comrades and civilians behind. Ukraine rejected an ultimatum from Russia to surrender Mariupol about a week before that.
In a March 2022 address, Zelenskyy thanked the 501st Battalion, indicating they were present in Mariupol. Zelenskyy makes no mention of a 503rd Battalion.
Today I want to express my sincere gratitude to each defender of our strong Mariupol. Our heroic city, which is experiencing the greatest ordeal in its history, in the history of Ukraine.
36th Separate Marine Brigade.
501st Separate Marine Battalion.
1st Separate Marine Battalion.
12th Brigade of the National Guard.
And a separate detachment of special purpose "Azov.”
Illia Ponomarenko of the Kyiv Independent reported that the 503rd Battalion denied that they had surrendered. The problem with this denial is that in some of the posts, it is the 501st Battalion that surrendered. We did not find any reported correspondence from or with the 501st. Hoaxlines wrote to Ponomarenko on April 5 to ask if he had any information about the 501st. We will update the report if we receive a response.
A British national who has served with the Ukrainian military for several years is currently in Mariupol. He posted on Twitter that the video does show the 501st Battalion, “This is real just FYI, 501st marine battalion.”
Cossackgundi did not offer the friend’s name or the identified soldier, which would allow for outside confirmation, but the friend may wish to remain unidentified.
Former Navy Seal Chuck Pfarrer, who has trained NATO forces in Europe, assessed the video and created a widely circulated graphic outlining why he does not believe the video is real.
Many of the objections raised by Pfarrer come down to practice. He points out items that captured soldiers should not be allowed to keep and other military malpractice. Still, the performance of the Russian military throughout this invasion makes it seem plausible that they would overlook such basic security measures.
Hoaxlines found unconfirmed reports that as many as four soldiers were identified as Ukrainian in the video. In no case were names or images provided for comparison, so the claims remain unsupported. Other details raised to question the video include that some of the soldiers appear to be wearing white sneakers, though Ukrainian soldiers could have changed their shoes at some point.
The soldiers’ clean appearance has been voiced as a reason to challenge the video’s authenticity, but there have been instances of soldiers remaining relatively clean throughout this war. These details may be the product of motivated reasoning when we support our existing belief with details we offer as evidence, but that alone would not lead us to our conclusion.
Hoaxlines remains undecided but also sees a third option
Rather than a true or false determination, it is possible that some aspects of the video are true and some are false. For example, the video could show Ukrainian soldiers captured at an earlier time or another location. Russia could pad the video with Russian “extras” mixed in with Ukrainian soldiers to make the surrender appear larger.
An anonymous Ukrainian in regular communication with people still in Ukraine suspected that the soldiers had been captured elsewhere and moved to Mariupol to be “paraded” for the video. Hoaxlines requested any sources or evidence the person could provide on April 5, and we will update if we receive any response.
The video first circulated with pro-Kremlin accounts, but this doesn’t help show whether the video is authentic because this is the type of event that pro-Kremlin accounts would promote either way. Rapid circulation amongst pro-Kremlin accounts may indicate coordination in spreading the story, which would increase the chances the story was “spun” somehow.
Pro-Kremlin actors are still attempting to erode the morale of those within Mariupol. Intel Slava released pictures showing Ukrainian marines subjected to the TOS-1 flamethrower. Efforts to influence soldiers have been present for the duration of the Russian invasion, and there is no reason to suspect they have ceased now.
A partial truth seems most likely given the existing evidence but Hoaxlines has decided not to draw a conclusion based on the relative scarcity of evidence, potential alternate explanations, and the gravity of the situation, which warrants a careful assessment. We ascertained that Mariupol has not fallen into Russian hands and that whoever remains in the city, soldier or civilian, is still fighting.