Covid Misinformation Maelstrom, Fact Checks on Mandatory Vaccination, Passports, Gun Control Proposals, and more
Threats, Fact-Checks, and Reads #4.11.21
Covid Update
Vigilance Matters When Viruses Vary
The United States is in the fourth week of an upward trend in COVID-19 cases. This increase could be related to more contagious variants and is likely also, at least in part, related to rolling back measures like mask mandates around the country.
We are doing much better than we were a few months ago, and we are so close. I know you’re tired of all of this, and we are too. Together we can end this nightmare. Wear a mask, do what you can, try not to judge others, and share good information. On the bright side, maybe 100 years from now, someone will be looking at your picture!
US Vaccination
Nearly 230 million doses of a Covid vaccine have been delivered in the US, and about 175 million doses have already found their way into someone’s arm.
We’re currently giving 2.8 million vaccinations per day.
We reached 4 million doses given in a single day in the past week, a rate previously unthinkable. We are now the country vaccinating people the fastest.
When You’ve Been Fully Vaccinated
We’re still learning how vaccines will affect the spread of COVID-19. We have a lot of good signs that it will stop both the disease and stop you from spreading the virus, but it’s never a guarantee that a vaccine does both.
As an example, the polio vaccine given in the US today prevents the disease (sickness) but you can still spread the virus without knowing it.
Polio was a lot like coronavirus in that most people had no symptoms when infected, a lot of people fell mildly ill, and a minority suffered the worst consequences of poliovirus infection.
Luckily, it’s looking like the mRNA vaccines stop both the spread and the disease.
After you’ve been fully vaccinated, the CDC recommends still wearing a mask, staying 6 feet apart from others, and avoiding crowds and poorly ventilated spaces—in public places. Studies in South America show that some of the variants may be able to re-infect recently infected people.
For that reason, it’s wise to still wear a mask in public. It sure beats repeating 2020.
See also:
If You Don’t Have COVID Vaccine Side Effects, Are You Still Protected?
First Covid vaccine dose: What can you do after your first shot?
The ‘Joy and Envy’ of Seeing All Your Friends Get Vaccinated
Vaccination Passports
Some experts and government officials have proposed vaccine certificates or passports as a way to get back to “normal” pre-pandemic activities, but there have been mixed responses over the idea in the US. Other countries are rolling forward with the idea, and some countries are forming a shared document like the EU.
Despite growing support globally, not all are on board.
The American Civil Liberties Union previously expressed concern that vaccine passports would exacerbate racial and economic disparities.
Some US Republicans have shown disapproval of vaccine passports, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who promised an executive order barring the state from participating in any vaccination credentialing efforts.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott, also opposed requirements to show proof of vaccination, issued an executive order on April 5 saying government agencies, private businesses, and institutions that receive state funding cannot require people to show proof that they have been vaccinated on the grounds that vaccination status is private health information.
White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Jeff Zients has said there will not be a federally mandated vaccination credentialing system and has promised more information in the coming weeks.
Related Read: The Vaccine Passport Debate Actually Began In 1897 Over A Plague Vaccine
This isn't the first time the world has been engaged in a conversation about "vaccine passports." And there even is a version of a passport currently in use – the World Health Organization-approved yellow card, which since 1969 has been a document for travelers to certain countries to show proof of vaccination for yellow fever and other shots.
AstraZeneca Vaccine and Blood Clots
NOTE: Americans have not and will likely not have access to the AstraZeneca vaccine, so it’s less of a concern in the US. Still, understanding what is happening may be helpful for those who are nervous about the vaccines.
Now several weeks after the initial reports of blood clots in a small number of individuals who were recently vaccinated with the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine in Europe, countries are still struggling to determine the best approach to using the vaccine.
The cause of the rare clotting reaction appears similar to the rare autoimmune response to heparin where a patient's immune system activates platelets (the element of blood that clots off bleeding).
The EMA’s (Europe’s FDA) Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) looked at the 86 total cases of thrombosis following vaccination, including 18 deaths, and determined that blood clotting should be listed as a “very rare” adverse event for the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine.
—estimates for the rate for this rare but serious adverse event range from 1 case per 100,000 people to 1 case per 1,000,000.
Notably, 86 cases occurred out of approximately 25 million people who have received one or more doses of the vaccine.
The clotting events occur more frequently in women under the age of 60 and typically occur within 2 weeks of vaccination, but additional risk factors have not yet been characterized.
The EMA explicitly noted that the “overall benefits of the vaccine in preventing COVID-19 outweigh the risks of side effects.”
If we assume the highest estimated rate for this clotting response, let’s put it in perspective:
We still use heparin, but we are aware of this risk and take precautions. In the case of Americans, it’s unlikely this vaccine will be used, as we have the more effective mRNA vaccines.
Something called the omission bias leads us to prefer the negatives that come from our inaction over those that come from us taking action.
“Imagine you are standing beside some tram tracks. In the distance, you spot a runaway trolley hurtling down the tracks towards five workers who cannot hear it coming. Even if they do spot it, they won’t be able to move out of the way in time.
As this disaster looms, you glance down and see a lever connected to the tracks. You realize that if you pull the lever, the tram will be diverted down a second set of tracks away from the five unsuspecting workers. However, down this side track is one lone worker, just as oblivious as his colleagues.
So, would you pull the lever, leading to one death but saving five?”
-Laura D'Olimpio, 2016
When put in this position, we struggle with pulling the lever even though not pulling the lever would cost four more lives. We feel less culpable and so we hesitate even though our action would save four lives.
People who choose not to vaccinate may unknowingly be influenced by the omission bias, which might leave them more comfortable with the potential risks of not vaccinating compared with those from vaccination.
The conversation continues over possible mandates for the Covid vaccine for various institutions and workplaces before the return to normal operating procedures.
Several universities have policies requiring students to be fully vaccinated if they wish to attend in-person classes this fall.
The rationale behind these decisions is that data show college campuses may be a hotspot for spreading Covid.
Of the at least 8 universities that have announced this plan, all will allow for religious and medical exemptions.
The CDC has offered guidance for SARS-CoV-2 vaccination policies in the workplace, but there are no discussions of a national vaccine mandate or passport.
Related Disinformation Note: A now-infamous group is circulating a petition against “forced vaccination.” They frame Covid vaccines as medical experimentation, “forced experimental vaccines,” and advise calling the vaccines “experimental.” The group is not a science-based group but a political one associated with political groups like the Heritage Foundation and Tea Party Patriots, funded by political groups.
The doctors in the group have endorsed widely debunked conspiracy theories and claims not supported by the best evidence.
The group is especially targeting Black Americans who are already more likely to die from a Covid infection.
The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) have formally condemned some of the doctors associated with the group.
There are no discussions or explorations into mandatory vaccinations in the US at this time, nor has the Biden administration shown interest in a federal or mandated vaccine passport.
The vaccines are not experimental. COVID-19 vaccines received Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA after clinical trials demonstrated that they are safe and effective. Regular FDA approval takes much longer and the priority here was getting the vaccines to the public.
The Disinformation Dozen and Viral Spread
Misinformation superspreaders drive most of the problem—just 12 people dubbed the disinformation dozen accounted for 73% of anti-vaccine content on Facebook.
Threats
A section for all things related to personal safety or national security.
Tracking the Russian military buildup near Ukraine
Online videos and satellite imagery show Russian military equipment arrival in Crimea and Voronezh.
Related: DEFCON Warning System – Statement on growing Ukraine situation
At this time, while the United States has given assurances that they support Ukraine in the current conflict over the Crimea situation, the U.S. has stopped short of promising military intervention.
Any military incursion or “annexation” will most likely remain limited to the areas south of an approximate line from Kherson to Luhansk.
Enough Prayers: Biden Moves on Gun Violence
Following yet another spate of mass shootings, President Joe Biden flexed his limited powers to act unilaterally Thursday, handing down 6 measures intended to curb gun violence in America.
“Enough prayers. Time for some action,” Biden said yesterday, The Washington Post reports.
The executive orders are a big step, but tackle a small sliver of what Biden called an “international embarrassment”—one he promised to address on the campaign trail before COVID-19 shifted the administration’s priorities, ABC News reports.
The country has more than 120 guns per 100 people and averages a mass shooting a day.
To be clear: There’s only so much Biden can do without the blessing of Congress—which has continually avoided enacting new gun laws. But the orders aim to limit access to certain weapons, and push states to enact their own gun control laws, Vox reports.
What the orders do:
Regulate “ghost guns” like untraceable 3-D printed firearms—requiring serial numbers and background checks
Require registration of stabilizing braces that effectively convert pistols into deadlier short-barreled rifles
Help states draw up “red flag” laws to bar dangerous individuals from carrying firearms
Require annual government reports on gun trafficking
Funnel a proposed $5 billion into community violence interventions
What they don’t do:
Make good on Biden’s campaign-trail promises, including a ban on assault weapons or enacting universal background checks.
US intelligence report warns of increased offensive cyber, disinformation around the world
Over the course of the next 20 years, nation-states will see a rise in targeted offensive cyber-operations and disinformation in an increasingly “volatile and confrontational” global security landscape, according to a new U.S. intelligence assessment.
The U.S. intelligence community expects these offensive cyber operations to target civilian and military infrastructure.
The U.S. government is already facing the difficult reality of finding effective deterrence schemes, and last year the FBI introduced a strategy aimed at better dissuading foreign hackers.
The National Intelligence Council’s prediction that disinformation is going to proliferate in the coming years is more of an observation than a prediction.
Russian, Chinese, and Iranian information operations have been working to reshape narratives about U.S. democracy amid the fallout of the storming of the Capitol, influence American voters and exploit political divisions in the U.S. — with both human and online conduits — according to the U.S. intelligence community.
Today, FDA announces a new action plan, Closer to Zero, that sets forth our approach to reducing exposure to toxic elements in foods commonly eaten by babies and young children to the lowest possible levels.
Although the FDA’s testing shows that children are not at an immediate health risk from exposure to toxic elements at the levels found in foods, we are starting the plan’s work immediately, with both short- and long-term goals for achieving continued improvements in reducing levels of toxic elements in these foods over time.
Fact Checks
A one-stop-shop for viral claims, foreign disinformation campaigns, and other forms of media manipulation.
Viral rumor rundown
Graphic from Satire Article Circulated As Real News Triggering Outrage
NO: CNN did not describe the alleged shooter in the March 22 mass shooting at a Boulder, Colorado, supermarket as “factually Arabic, but morally white.”
YES: This is a doctored image from a story in The Babylon Bee, a conservative Christian “news” satire website.
Note: Though this altered screenshot was originally published as satire, it widely circulated out of context on social media, provoking significant misdirected outrage. (Warning: The links in this note contain blurred profanity.) You can see examples of its spread on Twitter here, and on Facebook here, here, here, and here.
A Boatload of Claims About the Suez Canal
NO: Google did not “block” or censor images of the Suez Canal on Google Earth while the Ever Given, a container ship, was stuck in the canal.
YES: The water in these satellite images varies in color — from dark blue to lighter aquamarine — because Google Earth pieces together images from a variety of sources taken on different dates.
NO: Google Earth does not provide live, real-time satellite imagery and could not have censored a live shot of the vessel.
Note: Believers of the QAnon conspiracy belief system used the “blocked” images to push the absurd claim that the Ever Given, operated by the Evergreen company, was carrying abducted children in an international sex trafficking scheme involving Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Conspiracy theorists linked Evergreen to Clinton by pointing out that Evergreen is her Secret Service code name and falsely suggesting that the boat’s call sign, or identifier, H3RC, intentionally contains her initials.
Keywords in Media Manipulation
Motivated reasoning: Looking only for things in ways that are likely to confirm what you already want to believe or think is true and that will not typically result in information that conflicts with the belief you’re trying to prove.
Illusory pattern perception: The tendency to perceive meaningful cause-and-effect patterns and other connections between unrelated events.
Also known as “patternicity,” illusory pattern perception is often used as evidence to support a belief.
Viral Voter Claims
NO: Georgia’s new voting law, Senate Bill 202, does not allow beverages other than water to be handed out to voters waiting in line at polling places.
YES: The law prohibits giving “food and drink” — no exceptions are listed — “within 25 feet of any voter standing in line to vote at any polling place.”
Note: The author of this post later added the phrase “just joke” at the top, after the false loophole claim spread widely on social media.
Outlet Infamous For Misleading Information Misleads Again
NO: Some 3,964 people in Europe have not died from adverse reactions to COVID-19 vaccines.
YES: The figures in this misleading headline are missing necessary context and have not been investigated or verified by scientists.
YES: They are raw, unconfirmed numbers from EudraVigilance, a publicly accessible European Union database that compiles suspected side effects and other health problems that are “not necessarily related to or caused by” the vaccine.
NO: The data do not show whether the adverse reactions were caused by the vaccine or occurred coincidentally.
YES: Anti-vaccination activists routinely exaggerate the dangers of vaccines by misinterpreting and misusing data from EudraVigilance and from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a U.S. government database that allows anyone to self-report “possible side effects or health problems” experienced after a vaccine, even minor ones such as soreness at the injection site.
Note: According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), about two to five people per million who receive a COVID-19 vaccine experience anaphylaxis, a rare severe allergic reaction that can be effectively treated. The CDC thus far has no proof directly linking vaccines to anyone’s death.
Related:
Fact check: CDC data on adverse effects of the vaccine cannot determine the cause
More than 108.3 million people have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine as of April, but some anti-vaccine groups are using federal data to suggest those inoculations are unsafe.
3 possible futures for Covid-19 in the US — with hope for a return to normal
The future of America’s Covid-19 epidemic can now be distilled into this: long-term confidence and hope, but short-term uncertainty and, perhaps, even despair.
Why vaccine efficacy and effectiveness are not the same thing
Should COVID-19 vaccines be mixed?
According to The New York Times, health experts were “shocked” when the United Kingdom made a change to its guidelines in January to suggest that COVID-19 vaccines could be mixed. The updated guidance said people could receive a different vaccine for their second dose if the vaccine they received for their first shot was unavailable.
Why deaths after a positive Covid-19 test aren’t comparable with deaths after a vaccine
There is currently no cure for AIDS; reports to the contrary are incorrect
There is currently no cure for HIV/AIDS. Claims that an alkaline diet can cure AIDS by maintaining an alkaline state in the body are incorrect and unsupported by evidence.
The chance of being killed by a cow and other AstraZeneca vaccine risk comparisons explained
'End Times' Expert's QAnon And COVID-19 'Zombie' Claims On Jim Bakker Show Are NOT True
Are zombies created by COVID-19 and do the world's richest people drink the blood of tortured children? No, that's not true. A guest on the show of disgraced televangelist Jim Bakker, conspiracist Stephen Quayle, peddles multiple untrue claims about COVID-19.
Unproven: DMX took the COVID-19 vaccine days before he suffered a heart attack
Claims that DMX was vaccinated against Covid prior to his death have not been substantiated.
This follows a pattern of anti-vaccine advocates seizing upon deaths where a vaccine could plausibly be implicated, meaning it had any proximity to someone’s death.
Note from Novel Science: This recurring false claim led us to do a deeper dive into the reasons why claims about scheming governments and industries that want to make people sick aren’t probable.
Research
The latest research or reports related to science and society
Lancet Study Finds ⅓ of the 250,000 Study Participants Developed Mental or Neurological Conditions
A study published in The Lancet Psychiatry estimates that more than one-third of Covid-19 survivors had neurological symptoms within 6 months of their infection.
Researchers evaluated medical record data for nearly 250,000 COVID-19 patients and found 33.62% were diagnosed with a neurological or psychiatric condition in the 6 months following their infection, including 12.84% for whom this was their first such diagnosis.
The researchers also compared study participants to people with influenza and other respiratory diseases.
Covid patients were still significantly more likely to develop neurological and psychiatric conditions following infection.
Many neurological and mental health conditions are underdiagnosed in the broader population, so it difficult to definitively link these conditions to COVID-19, but that patients with other respiratory diseases had a lower risk says that SARS-CoV-2 may have a lasting effect, long after the acute stage of infection or disease.
They Tested Negative for Covid. Still, They Have Long Covid Symptoms.
Long after their initial coronavirus infections, patients with a malady known as “long covid” continue to struggle with varied symptoms such as fatigue, shortness of breath, gastrointestinal problems, muscle and joint pain, and neurological issues.
Scientists have developed a super-sensitive rapid diagnostic test for Ebola
When tested in monkeys, the diagnostic test was 1,000X more sensitive than the current go-to tests.
mRNA treatment prevented the death of neurons when dosed 2 days after ischemia in rat
Long-term experiments showed significant improvements in memory compared with untreated rats. The findings are expected to extend the potential treatment window for preventing neuronal death after the ischemic attack, and significantly improve outcomes for patients.
Why young people feel safer talking about suicide online than in real life
One of the main reasons people gave for not sharing these experiences was that they didn’t believe they’d be taken seriously – by friends, by family, and even by professionals. Many feared being shunned, misunderstood, or ridiculed if they sought help or spoke out. As another participant revealed:
If you try and seek help and you get like a “you are doing this on purpose for a different reason, or for attention”, it makes a mockery of what you were feeling.
Young people in our study described how they wished professionals would address suicidality, with many detailing their experiences of asking for help from health professionals only to be turned away or dismissed.
If you are sat there explaining you are struggling and you need help, then they should listen and not be like “you are just having a bad week” kind of thing.
Another study, also at the University of Birmingham, has explored self-harm and suicide-related discussions across social media. It shows that invalidating people’s experiences of suicidality in real life is a key reason that young people turn to online spaces for support and understanding.
National Intelligence Council Releases Global Trends Report
Secretary Mayorkas’s Statement on FY22 Discretionary Funding Request
Proposals aim to strengthen the border; restore our immigration system; support efforts to detect, deter, and recover from malicious cyberattacks; and combat climate change.
Recommended Reads
Articles we recommend that didn’t fit under threats, fact-checks, or research.
Facebook Built the Perfect Platform for Covid Vaccine Conspiracies
Mark Zuckerberg wanted to make his social network a reliable source about the pandemic. Instead, he’s helped spread misinformation about vaccines causing infertility.
64% of people who joined an extremist group on Facebook only did so because the company’s algorithm recommended it to them.
—Wall-Street Journal Investigation
A lesson from and for the Netherlands: If the Election Software Works, Use It and Audit the Results
Reducing the time it takes to certify the election can also make it more difficult for malign actors to undermine confidence in the election results.
Malign actors exploit the time required to certify and announce election results by disseminating disinformation that can include reports of voter suppression, cyberattacks targeting election infrastructure, election fraud, and other problems intended to convince the public of the elections’ illegitimacy.
Using counting technology to quickly provide the public with unofficial results, followed by a manual audit to ensure the reported outcomes are correct could go a long way towards preventing such disinformation operations from gaining traction in future elections.
Now that you’re vaccinated, how risky is kissing?
There’s no question that COVID has changed the way we live and date. The only socializing we’re used to is social media and social distancing, and when someone is talking about a shot, they’re probably referring to the vaccine rather than an alcoholic beverage.
Now that more and more people are eligible to get the vaccine, what does that mean for dating?
Big tobacco targets Black smokers with menthol. The FDA should ban it.
The American Medical Association and other groups have sued the Food and Drug Administration seeking a ban on menthol cigarettes. The FDA is expected to respond by April 29.
In the 1950s, about 5% of Black smokers smoked menthol cigarettes. But marketing researchers found that Black smokers had a slight preference for menthol cigarettes, a preference that tobacco companies sought to exploit.
This exercise in targeted marketing worked. Today, about 85% of Black smokers use menthol brands.
Although older forms of advertising (e.g., big billboards) are prohibited, allegiance to menthol is maintained through point-of-sale and discount promotions of mentholated tobacco products—small, cheap cigars are the latest example—in Black communities.