Last update: May 18, 2023

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• Zauche LH, Wallace B, Smoots AN, et al. Receipt of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines and risk of spontaneous abortions. New Engl J MedPublished online September 8, 2021; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2113891

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• Moro PL, Olson CK, Clark E, et al. Post-authorization surveillance of adverse events following COVID-19 vaccines in pregnant persons in the vaccine adverse event reporting system (VAERS), December 2020 – October 2021. Vaccine. Published online April 12, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.04.031

• Sadarangani M, Soe P, Shulha HP, et al. Safety of COVID-19 vaccines in pregnancy: a Canadian National Vaccine Safety (CANVAS) network cohort study [published online ahead of print, 2022 Aug 11]. Lancet Infect Dis. 2022;S1473-3099(22)00426-1. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00426-1

• Magnus MC, Gjessing HK, Eide HN, et al. Covid-19 Vaccination during Pregnancy and First-Trimester Miscarriage. New Engl J Med2021; 385:2008-2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2114466

• Fell DB, Dhinsa T, Alton GD, et al. Association of COVID-19 Vaccination in Pregnancy With Adverse Peripartum Outcomes. JAMA. 2022;327(15):1478-1487. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2022.4255

• Badell ML, Dude CM, Rasmussen SA, Jamieson DJ. Covid-19 vaccination in pregnancy. BMJ. 2022;378:e069741. Published 2022 Aug 10. doi:10.1136/bmj-2021-069741

• Ruderman RS, Mormol J, Trawick E, et al. Association of COVID-19 Vaccination During Early Pregnancy With Risk of Congenital Fetal Anomalies. JAMAPediatr. 2022;176(7):717-719. doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2022.0164

• Goldshtein I, Nevo D, Steinberg DM, et al. Association Between BNT162b2 Vaccination and Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Pregnant Women.Published online July 12, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.11035

• Dagan N, Barda N, Biron-Shental T, et al. Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in pregnancy. Nat Med. Published online September 7, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01490-8

• Theiler RN, Wick M, Mehta R, et al. Pregnancy and birth outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in pregnancy. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2021 Nov; 3(6): 100467

• Morgan JA, Biggio JR, Martin JK, et al. Maternal Outcomes After Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection in Vaccinated Compared With Unvaccinated Pregnant Patients. Obstetrics & Gynecology: January 2022 – Volume 139 – Issue 1 – p 107-109. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1097/AOG.0000000000004621

• Stock SJ, Carruthers J, Calvert C, et al. SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination rates in pregnant women in Scotland. Nat Med(2022). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01666-2

• Sekkarie A, Woodruff R, Whitaker M, et al. Characteristics and treatment of hospitalized pregnant women with Coronavirus Disease 2019, COVID-19 [published online ahead of print, 2022 Aug 12]. Am J Obstet Gynecol MFM. 2022;100715. doi:10.1016/j.ajogmf.2022.100715

• Prasad, S., Kalafat, E., Blakeway, H. et al. Systematic review and meta-analysis of the effectiveness and perinatal outcomes of COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy. Nat Commun 13, 2414 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30052-w

• Yang YJ, Murphy EA, Singh S, et al. Association of Gestational Age at Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccination, History of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection, and a Vaccine Booster Dose With Maternal and Umbilical Cord Antibody Levels at Delivery. Obstetrics & Gynecology: 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1097/AOG.0000000000004693

• Nir O, Schwartz A, Toussia-Cohen S, et al. Maternal-neonatal transfer of SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G antibodies among parturient women treated with BNT162b2 messenger RNA vaccine during pregnancy. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2022; 4(1): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajogmf.2021.100492

• Gray KJ, Bordt EA, Atyeo C, et al. Coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine response in pregnant and lactating women: a cohort study. Am J Obstet Gynecol. Published online March 25, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajog.2021.03.023

• Shook LL, Atyeo CG, Yonker LM, et al. Durability of Anti-Spike Antibodies in Infants After Maternal COVID-19 Vaccination or Natural Infection. JAMA. Published online February 07, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2022.1206

• Halasa NB, Olson SM, Staat MA, et al. Vaccine Effectiveness Against COVID-19 Hospitalization in Infants <6 Months of Age from Maternal mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination — United States, July 2021– January 2022 MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022;71: 264–270. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7107e3

• Halasa NB, Olson SM, Staat MA, et al. Maternal Vaccination and Risk of Hospitalization for Covid-19 among Infants. N Engl J Med. 2022;387(2):109-119. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2204399

• Munoz FM, Posavad CM, Richardson BA, et al. COVID-19 booster vaccination during pregnancy enhances maternal binding and neutralizing antibody responses and transplacental antibody transfer to the newborn. medRxiv. 2022 Jun 13 (Preprint) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.06.13.22276354

• Muyldermans J, De Weerdt L, De Brabandere L, Maertens K, Tommelein E. The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination on Lactating Women: A Systematic Review of the Literature. Front Immunol. 2022;13:852928. Published 2022 Apr 8. doi:10.3389/fimmu.2022.852928

• Drugs and Lactation Database (LactMed) [Internet]. Bethesda (MD): National Library of Medicine (US); 2006-. COVID-19 Vaccines. [Updated 2022 Sep 19]. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK565969/

• Perl SH, Uzan-Yulzari A, Klainer H, et al. SARS-CoV-2–Specific Antibodies in Breast Milk After COVID-19 Vaccination of Breastfeeding Women. 2021;325(19):2013–2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.5782

• Kelly JC, Carter EB, Raghuraman N, et al. Anti–severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 antibodies induced in breast milk after Pfizer-BioNTech/BNT162b2 vaccination. Am J Obstet Gynecol. 2021;225(1):101-103. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajog.2021.03.031

• Jakuszko K, Kościelska-Kasprzak K, Żabińska M, et al. Immune Response to Vaccination against COVID-19 in Breastfeeding Health Workers. Vaccines. 2021; 9(6):663. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9060663

• Baird JK, Jensen SM, Urba WJ, et al. SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies Detected in Mother’s Milk Post-Vaccination. Journal of Human Lactation. 2021;37(3):492-498. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/08903344211030168

• Charepe N, Goncalves J, Juliano M, et al. COVID-19 mRNA vaccine and antibody response in lactating women: a prospective cohort study. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 2021;(21): 632. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12884-021-04051-6

• Zaçe D, La Gatta E, Petrella L, Di Pietro ML. The impact of COVID-19 vaccines on fertility-A systematic review and meta-analysis. Vaccine. 2022;40(42):6023-6034. Doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.09.019

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Findings

We examined the surge in content discussing "Ukraine" and "Nazi" in far-left, far-right, hyperpartisan, and conspiracy theory websites during the Russian invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. The findings suggest that the increased coverage of Ukraine-Nazi stories coincided with key events in the Kremlin-orchestrated invasions in both years, including protests, escalations, and strategic maneuvers. These media outlets amplified false Kremlin narratives that likely sought to justify Russia's actions in Ukraine.

In both 2014 and 2022, the surge in Ukraine-Nazi content coincided with key events related to Russian invasions and actions in Ukraine. The false narratives seemingly aimed to justify Russia's aggression and actions in the region.

The findings highlight the potential impact of media manipulation on public opinion and the justification of military actions. By amplifying false narratives, these outlets may contribute to the spread of misinformation, negatively affecting international relations and conflict resolution efforts. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of critically examining media content and providing accurate information to counter false narratives and misinformation.

Overview

Hoaxlines gathered data to assess media discussions of “Ukraine” and the term “Nazi.” We searched a decade from June 2010 through July 2022 using Media Cloud Explorer. We found that content discussing “Ukraine” and “Nazi” surged as the 2014 Kremlin-orchestrated events in Ukraine stumbled. The Ukraine-Nazi stories also increased before and coinciding with Russia’s February 2022 invasion.

We searched for the terms in outlets categorized as far-left, far-right, hyperpartisan, and conspiracy theory websites. Why and how these outlets ended up promoting false Kremlin narratives in 2014 and 2022 has received limited research interest but warrants examination.

Even to debunk the claims, outlets covering the subject risk contributing to media manipulation when they fail to provide critical information: Widespread concern about extremism in Ukraine was rare until Russia claimed Ukrainian extremism was its justification for seizing Ukrainian land.

Returning to the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine

On March 1, 2014, the Russian parliament approved a troop deployment to Ukraine. By March 3, Kremlin-aligned groups had stormed the regional government building in Donetsk. The demonstrators demanded a split from Ukraine, but the protests had largely failed to produce the Kremlin’s desired effect, according to leaked emails from the time between Russian and pro-Russian actors.

The strong response from Ukrainian law enforcement had deterred pro-Russian figures who emailed collaborators inside of Russia to complain about their struggle. Western leaders condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine on March 3, 2014.

At the height of the Ukraine-Nazi content surge on March 4, 2014, Putin claimed the military exercises were over. The following day, “Russian soldiers [blockaded] Ukrainian navy command ship Slavutych at the Crimean port of Sevastopol.” Putin scoffed at requests to remove Russian forces from Crimea, claiming they were not under his command.

Within days, an international voting observation team would be refused entry to Crimea with a warning shot. By April 2014, pro-Russian actors would seize the Regional Administration of Donetsk and declare it a “republic.”

In 2022, similar events unfolded, with denials that Russia intended to invade Ukraine. Russia followed its denials by renewing its invasion of Ukraine under the guise of a “Special Military Operation” on February 24, 2022.

Graphic timeline of Russian invasions versus the data

Content discussing “Ukraine” and “Nazi” surged as the 2014 Kremlin-orchestrated events in Ukraine faltered. The Ukraine-Nazi stories also increased preceding and coinciding with Russia’s February 2022 invasion.

The full bar graph timelines can be found here:

2014 data

• Content containing references to “Ukraine” and “Nazi” peaked on March 4, 2014.

• March 4, 2014, was the same day that Kirill Frolov, an analyst of the Institute of the CIS Countries who worked for Putin-aides Sergey Glazyev and Vladislav Surkov, complained about the protests failing to produce the desired effect in Ukraine.

2022 data

• Stories slowly increased in number throughout January 2022. Cyberattacks accompanied the increase.

• The number of stories per day reached 71 on February 24, when Russia renewed its invasion of Ukraine. The following day, February 25, the number of stories reached 91.

• On March 7, story counts reached 76; on March 8, another 72 stories were published.

• Although possibly coincidental, on March 9, Russia bombed a maternity hospital, blaming Ukrainian “Nazis” for its actions. That same day, 58 stories containing “Ukraine” and “Nazi” were published.

  

• On April 27, Russia cut off gas to Poland and Bulgaria in a move the European Commission called “blackmail.”

• Another important date was May 9. “Victory Day,” as the Russian government calls it, was the day Russia had hoped it would celebrate victory over Ukraine.

• On May 9, outlets published 74 pieces of content that matched our search criteria for “Ukraine” and “Nazi.”

What can the data tell?

The data suggest that concern about Ukraine and Nazi-related far-right extremism on hyperpartisan and conspiracy websites likely relates to Russian land seizures in Ukraine. Before the invasion, Ukraine had a marginal far-right presence. Stories containing the two search terms were negligible before the 2014 invasion.

The disinterest before the invasion is all the more noteworthy because Russia falsely claims its invasion intended to “liberate” Ukraine from “Nazis,” a process the Kremlin calls “denazification.”

In 2014, the strong response from Ukrainian law enforcement was a stumbling block for the Kremlin. But the tides seemed to turn after a flood of articles accusing Ukraine of being run by Nazis was unleashed online. The content peaked on March 4, 2014, the day that Putin claimed his military exercises were over.

Even with nationalist sentiments increasing in Ukraine after 2014, a far-right candidate on the 2019 national ballot received 1.5% of the vote. In this same election, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a Russian-speaking Ukrainian of Jewish heritage, won the presidential election in a “landslide victory.”

Reporting Radicalism wrote of the election in 2019:

The 2019 result was not unusual for Ukraine: in the 2010 election, Oleh Tyahnybok of the Svoboda party received 1.43 percent of the vote. In snap elections in 2014, Tyahnybok received 1.6 percent of the vote, while Dmytro Yarosh from the Right Sector party received 0.70 percent. These vote totals indicate that the risk of a right-wing authoritarian regime being established in Ukraine was and is extremely low.

For comparison, a far-right candidate on the ballot this past May in Georgia, U.S., received 3.4% of the vote.

The other notable increase in content happened in 2022, as Russia attempted another land seizure in Ukraine. The difference with the timing of the content in 2022 was that content surged at the same time the invasion began rather than after the effort appeared to be failing in 2014.

Recommendations for media coverage

Globally, the threat of far-right extremism has risen in the past decade. It’s a threat Hoaxlines does not dismiss, even in Ukraine.

The concern about media reporting relates to the relative lack of interest before the Russian land seizures. That reality warrants acknowledgment in stories covering extremism in Ukraine. Stories failing to contextualize the scale of extremism in Ukraine compared to other democratic countries, in effect, further Russian propaganda.

NPR reported on Russia’s attempts to justify its actions in Ukraine in March 2022:

A lengthy list of historians signed a letter condemning the Russian government’s “cynical abuse of the term genocide, the memory of World War II and the Holocaust, and the equation of the Ukrainian state with the Nazi regime to justify its unprovoked aggression.”

They pointed to a broader pattern of Russian propaganda frequently painting Ukraine’s elected leaders as “Nazis and fascists oppressing the local ethnic Russian population, which it claims needs to be liberated.”

And while Ukraine has right-wing extremists, they add, that does not justify Russia’s aggression and mischaracterization.

Ukrainian intelligence intercepted instructions from Russian intelligence agents that instructed how to cover the Russian "special military operation" in Ukraine. The instructions included orders to establish "networks of propagandists" to help shape a positive opinion about the actions of Russian troops in Ukraine. The orders complement other evidence about Kremlin planning surrounding its invasions of Ukraine, like leaked emails.

Hoaxlines assesses that the best way to avoid participating in media manipulation on this topic is to address, in the opening paragraph, how and when interest in the subject began and whose interests attention to the topic may serve. Examples of relevant details include comparing the level of extremism in Ukraine to other democratic countries and explicitly stating that domestic extremism—a problem found in nearly, if not all, countries today— does not justify Russia’s actions.

The media should be aware that outlets rapidly transmitting the preferred narratives of a foreign state could pose a dire threat to U.S. national security in many situations, especially in public health emergencies.

How we gathered the data

Hoaxlines gathered data from Media Cloud to assess the content volume of articles discussing “Ukraine” and “Nazi” from June 2010 through July 2022. We searched for these terms, used together, in articles from outlets listed in one of four Media Cloud Explorer lists, United States Conspiracies, Hyperpartisan Left, Hyperpartisan Right, and United States Far Right.

A collection similar to the United States Far-Right list did not exist for the political left; however, the United States Conspiracies list contains outlets that might be considered far-left or far-right.

Researchers and journalists have observed a right-leaning bias among recent sources of low reliability, although that doesn’t consider the content volume produced by each website. Media bias charts also suggest this bias, so the unequal counts for websites are neither unexpected nor indicative of having omitted far-left websites.

You can find a live version of the graph here.

Key events timeline

Re-published under the Open Parliament License from the U.K. House of Commons:

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Expert on European Far-Right movements on Azov

Anton Shekhovtsov is an expert on Russia’s connection with Europe’s far-right. In the embedded video, he discusses the Azov regiment.

If you’re short on time

• While subpar care contributed to her death, the official investigation found the law was a “key causal factor” in Savita’s death. The lead investigator stressed that even after Savita’s condition had become grave: “They were worried that if they did a termination they might be accused of performing an illegal act by not complying with the Eighth Amendment. So I think it’s important to recognise that.”

  

• Dr. Katherine Astbury, who cared for Savita, acknowledged feeling “constrained by Irish law.”

• The inquest showed the care provider was concerned about whether the threat to Savita’s life was grave enough and consulted more than one other provider about it. Savita’s widower has consistently testified to requesting termination multiple times.

  

• Another doctor, Dr. Hadeel Jawad, who testified at the inquest, recalled Savita’s doctor saying, “We can't do the termination of pregnancy when the fetal heart is positive because this would be illegal.”

  

• The investigation found counseling is provided after miscarriage occurs rather than when an inevitable miscarriage has been diagnosed, which may further suggest the inability to recognize the reality due to legislation.

• Sepsis was a contributing factor, but the lead investigator refuted the claim it explained her death.

The official investigation by Irish Health Services

That infection and eventual sepsis contributed to Savita’s death are not disputed by anti-abortion groups, her family, the care providers, or any of the investigations, so we will not spend time outlining that aspect. Savita had an infection that had likely caused her to miscarry, and it contributed to her death. It was one of three “Key Causal Factors” identified by the investigation.

In the report, Irish Health Services1 specifically states that “Legislative factors affecting medical considerations” contributed to Savita’s death, as depicted in the graphic from the report and the quote below.

“The investigation team is satisfied that concerns about the law, whether clear or not, impacted on the exercise of clinical professional judgement.”

The document continues:

 “The records and interviews confirmed that - from the time of her admission, up to the morning of the 24th of October - the management plan for the patient was to “await events” and to monitor the fetal heart in case an accelerated delivery might be possible once the fetal heart stopped. The interviewees stated to the investigation team that this was because of their interpretation of the law related to pregnancy termination.” 

The official investigation found that a key factor in her death had been that she was not offered all management options (Irish Health Services, 2013). The following are listed as a “Key Causal Factor” in Savita’s death:

“Failure to offer all management options to a patient experiencing an inevitable miscarriage of an early second-trimester pregnancy where the risk to the mother increased with time from the time that membranes were ruptured.”

Witness testimony and the trial

Savita’s widower

Savita’s husband testified that he asked doctors to expedite the loss by carrying out an abortion, which would have dramatically improved her odds of survival, according to the investigation and inquest (Gwen Malone Stenography Services, 2013; Irish Health Service, 2013; Taggart, 2013). His testimony has stayed consistent over time.

Care providers and investigators

Dr. Katherine Astbury, who cared for Savita, acknowledged feeling “constrained by Irish law,” which does not permit a termination even in cases where medical doctors find a condition incompatible with life (Taggart & Smith-Spark, 2013).

In the inquest, multiple people involved in her case stated they felt termination was needed prior to the cessation of fetal heart activity (Gwen Malone Stenography Services, 2013).

The lead investigator of her case, a medical doctor, refuted the claim that Savita died of sepsis, and his account affirms Savita’s widower’s testimony (Aodha, 2018). 

“Dr. Arulkumaran has also clarified claims around Savita’s death, saying that the Eighth Amendment was a major factor. He refuted claims that sepsis was the only cause of her death, as has been claimed by some during the course of the referendum debate.

He said that although “she showed signs of sepsis that were not well-recorded”, he said that the healthcare team that were looking after her were “really going for the foetal heart all the time, even when she had a heart rate of more than 160bpm, high temperature they didn’t think of terminating”.

“The next morning, they were listening to the baby’s heart. They were worried that if they did a termination they might be accused of performing an illegal act by not complying with the Eighth Amendment. So I think it’s important to recognise that.”

Reporting from the time stated:

“In his evidence, a leading obstetrician said Halappanavar’s life could have been saved had a termination been carried out a day or two before her miscarriage. However, Dr. Peter Boylan admitted it would not have been practical under Irish law, which states there has to be a real and substantial risk to the mother’s life” (Taggart & Smith-Spark, 2013).

The investigation concluded that “Non-adherence to clinical guidelines related to the prompt and effective management of sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock when it was diagnosed” was a contributing factor, though this does not change or mitigate the fact that policy contributed to her death and that similar policies have contributed to deaths in other countries too (Bennhold & Pronczuk, 2022; Gera, 2021; McCammon & Hodges, 2022).

The lead investigator also clarified that even on the last day of her life, when sepsis was clear, records show they were preoccupied with the fetal heart rate. The investigation found that this is standard practice.

“The investigation team established that counselling is provided after miscarriage occurs rather than when an inevitable miscarriage has been diagnosed.”

This approach to care conflicts with the international standard of care, a standard to which the US may no longer ascribe depending where you live (Irish Health Service, 2013; McCammon & Hodges, 2022). 

Policy recommendations from trial

Trial conclusions included a call for policy change from multiple parties. The coroner for the trial recommended changes to policy needed to remove “doubt and fear from the doctor and also reassure the public” (AP News, 2013). 

On policy, the official investigation said (Irish Health Services, 2013):

 “There is difficulty in interpretation of law in relation to ‘what constitutes a potential major hazard or threat to mother’s life.’ This needs clarification. The consultant clearly thought that the risk to the mother had not crossed the point where termination was allowable in Irish law on the morning ward round on the 24th.”

The report goes father than recognizing the law as causal in Savita’s death. It warns that it could kill others in the future: 

“The lack of clear clinical guidelines and training is considered to have been a material contributory factor in this regard. Similar incidents with a similar clinical context could happen again in the absence of: 

→ Clarity as to the application of the law in a situation where it may be necessary for a doctor to consider, in the exercise of their clinical professional judgement, the termination of a pregnancy in the clinical welfare interest of their patient 

→ An absence of appropriate national clinical guidelines on the clinical management of inevitable miscarriage in the early second trimester including the management of prolonged rupture of membranes with infection” .   

The vote to repeal

A vote to repeal came after the investigation, and an inquest found waiting for the fetal heart activity to cease had been a key factor in Savita’s death (Aodha, 2018; Gwen Malone Stenography Services, 2013; Irish Health Service, 2013; Yalgi, 2018). The inquest showed the care provider was concerned whether the threat to Savita’s life was grave enough.

Savita’s parents, widower, and the lead investigator in this case both urged the court to repeal it because, as Irish Health Services noted, nothing had changed that would prevent this from happening again (Aodha, 2018; Gwen Malone Stenography Services, 2013; Irish Health Service, 2013; Yalgi, 2018).

Her father expressed in a video published on Facebook his hope that this would not happen again: 

“I hope that people in Ireland will remember the fate of our daughter Savita on the day of the referendum and vote yes so that what happened to us won’t happen to other families.”

Anti-abortion activists claim, without evidence, that pro-choice activists exploited Savita

Anti-abortion activists accuse the “pro-choice” movement of using Savita’s death to legalize abortion, saying she died from poor care (Irish Times editors, 2012). In 2012, immediately after Savita’s death, Niamh Uí Bhriain of the Life Institute denied that the death had anything to do with the ban on abortion in Ireland and said it was "very sad to see abortion campaigners rush to exploit this case” (Irish Times editors, 2012). 

It’s unclear what justified Niamh Uí Bhriain’s claim, and there is the obvious question of bias given her position with “Life Institute” and lack of connection to Savita’s family. Uí Bhriain works as a Catholic policy lobbyist and has spread a false claim that — intentionally or not — advanced her favored policy before, falsely claiming that children raised by same-sex parents were more likely to abuse drugs (Irish Examiner editors, 2006).   

• Despite facing more stressors than opposite-sex couples, studies with transparent funding, peer-review, qualified researchers, and repeatable, replicable, and reproducible design do not find significant differences in outcomes of children (Bos et al., 2018; Power, 2017; What Does The Scholarly Research Say about the Well-Being of Children with Gay or Lesbian Parents?, 2013), and in some instances, children of same-sex parents performed better in school (Mazrekaj et al., 2020).
  
  A 2022 study found (Mazrekaj et al., 2022):

  The findings obtained by coarsened exact matching suggest no significant disadvantages for children with same-sex parents compared to different-sex parents. We contextualize these findings in their wider cultural context, and recommend a renewed focus in future research away from deficit-driven comparisons.

Lead investigator and inquest refute the claim that the law played no role in Savita’s death

Returning to Savita, while it’s true the court case ruled her death a “medical misadventure,” it is incorrect that this alone explains her death.

The inquest, the official investigation, and the lead investigator on the case all concluded the law affected medical decision-making (Irish Health Services 2013; Aodha 2018). Additionally, Dr. Katherine Astbury acknowledged feeling “constrained by Irish law.”

The reported circumstances surrounding Savita’s death have remained unchanged since being reported in November 2012 (Gwen Malone Stenography Services, 2013; Holland, 2018; Holland & Cullen, 2012; Irish Health Service, 2013). Still, anti-abortion activists or media sometimes claim medical failures, which did take place, fully explain Savita’s death (Holland & Cullen, 2012; White, 2013). That is false, as detailed in earlier sections.

Savita’s widower and parents were also publicly outspoken about the situation, demanding legislative action, which conflicts with the idea that “pro-choice” activists exploited the situation (AP News, 2013; Taggart & Smith-Spark, 2013; Yalgi, 2018).

Claims echoed in the United States

In the US, the negative consequences of abortion laws in Texas led Texas Right to Life to argue in a blog post that “misinformation” from the media and abortion advocates is the real problem (Texas Right to Life, 2022).

The trouble with this account is that this implies the sources of “misinformation” are the most respected relevant organizations, including but not limited to those listed below (Brief of Amici Curiae American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, American Medical Association, American Academy of Family Physicians, American Academy of Nursing, American Academy of Pediatrics, American Association of Public Health Physicians, Et Al. In Support of Respondents, 2022). 

• American College Of Obstetricians And Gynecologists

• American Medical Association

• American Academy Of Family Physicians

•  American Academy Of Nursing

• American Academy Of Pediatrics

• American Association Of Public Health Physicians

Texas Right to Life failed to demonstrate that anything but fact led expert organizations to take this stance, nor do they demonstrate themselves to be a credible source. 

The expert coalition expressly warns in the amicus brief that the ban “places clinicians in the untenable position of choosing between providing care consistent with their best medical judgment, scientific evidence, and the clinicians’ ethical obligations or risk losing their medical licenses.”

Relevant experts’ fears realized in Texas

The consensus, spelled out in a amicus brief 2 authored by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (“ACOG”), American Medical Association, (“AMA”), American Academy of Family Physicians, (“AAFP”), American Academy of Nursing (“AAN”),, American Academy of Pediatrics (“AAP”), American, Association of Public Health Physicians (“AAPHP”),, American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics, (“ACMG”), American College of Nurse-Midwives, (“ACNM”), American College of Osteopathic Obstetricians and Gynecologists (“ACOOG”), American College, of Physicians (“ACP”), American Gynecological and, Obstetrical Society (“AGOS”), American Medical, Women’s Association (“AMWA”), American Psychiatric Association (“APA”), American Society for Reproductive Medicine (“ASRM”), Association of Women’s, Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses (“AWHONN”),, Council of University Chairs of Obstetrics and Gynecology (“CUCOG”), GLMA: Health Professionals Advancing LGBTQ Equality (“GLMA”), North American, Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology, (“NASPAG”), National Medical Association (“NMA”),, National Association of Nurse Practitioners in Women’s Health (“NPWH”), Society for Academic Specialists in General Obstetrics and Gynecology (“SASGOG”), Society of Family Planning (“SFP”), Society of, General Internal Medicine (“SGIM”), Society of Gynecologic Oncology (“SGO”), and Society of OB/GYN, Hospitalists (“SOGH”) is that the overturn of Roe V Wade will bring predictable, preventable harm and that exemptions will not stop dozens of potentially lethal situations (Brief of Amici Curiae American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, American Medical Association, American Academy of Family Physicians, American Academy of Nursing, American Academy of Pediatrics, American Association of Public Health Physicians, Et Al. In Support of Respondents, 2022), 2022). 

The amici note the Supreme Court’s misapprehension where the science is concerned, saying, “Indeed, the Ban reflects a fundamental misunderstanding and misrepresentation of the science of fetal development.” They state that the argument put forth by Mississippi “attempts to manufacture a concern that medical consensus rejects as scientifically unfounded.”

The negative consequences detailed in the amicus brief came to life in an article titled “Abortion laws spark profound changes in other medical care” from the Associated Press (Tanner, 2022), one of the most reliable news agencies available in English:

“For physicians and patients alike, this is a frightening and fraught time, with new, unprecedented concerns about data privacy, access to contraception, and even when to begin lifesaving care,” said Dr. Jack Resneck, president of the American Medical Association.

Even in medical emergencies, doctors are sometimes declining immediate treatment. In the past week, an Ohio abortion clinic received calls from two women with ectopic pregnancies — when an embryo grows outside the uterus and can’t be saved — who said their doctors wouldn’t treat them. Ectopic pregnancies often become life-threatening emergencies and abortion clinics aren’t set up to treat them.

It’s just one example of “the horrible downstream effects of criminalizing abortion care,″ said Dr. Catherine Romanos, who works at the Dayton clinic.

With the fall of Roe v. Wade, “the art of medicine is lost and actually has been replaced by fear,” Munoz said.

Munoz said he faced an awful predicament with a recent patient who had started to miscarry and developed a dangerous womb infection. The fetus still had signs of a heartbeat, so an immediate abortion — the usual standard of care — would have been illegal under Texas law.

“We physically watched her get sicker and sicker and sicker” until the fetal heartbeat stopped the next day, “and then we could intervene,” he said. The patient developed complications, required surgery, lost multiple liters of blood and had to be put on a breathing machine “all because we were essentially 24 hours behind.’’

Yes, the overturning of Roe V Wade could lead to deaths from ectopic pregnancy. Here's how.

Hoaxlines’ explainer on some of the negative outcomes related to laws was published a couple of weeks ago and covers many of the disconnects that have happened in this discussion. The cases in this presentation do not include Savita.

• Slides can be found here.

• References for the video can be found here.

  
  

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References

Figures and images

Snippets of investigation and inquest

Citations

Aodha, G. N. (2018). Doctor who led inquiry into Savita Halappanavar’s death calls for Yes vote “for women”s health and rights’. The Journal. https://www.thejournal.ie/doctors-savita-halappanavar-4027207-May2018/

AP News. (2013, April 20). Irish Jury Finds Poor Care in Death of Woman Denied Abortion. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/20/world/europe/jury-cites-poor-medical-care-in-death-of-indian-woman-in-ireland.html

Bennhold, K., & Pronczuk, M. (2022, June 12). Poland Shows the Risks for Women When Abortion Is Banned. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/12/world/europe/poland-abortion-ban.html

Bos, H. M. W., Kuyper, L., & Gartrell, N. K. (2018). A Population-Based Comparison of Female and Male Same-Sex Parent and Different-Sex Parent Households. Family Process, 57(1), 148–164. https://doi.org/10.1111/famp.12278

Brief of Amici Curiae American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, American Medical Association, American Academy of Family Physicians, American Academy of Nursing, American Academy of Pediatrics, American Association of Public Health Physicians, Et Al. In Support of Respondents, 2022. (2022). Dobbs V Jackson: Brief of amici curiae of ACOG, AMA, AAFP, AAN, AAP, AAPHP, et al. in support of respondents. ACOG. https://www.acog.org/-/media/project/acog/acogorg/files/advocacy/amicus-briefs/2021/20210920-dobbs-v-jwho-amicus-brief.pdf?la=en&hash=717DFDD07A03B93A04490E66835BB8C5

Gera, V. (2021, November 2). Pregnant woman’s death puts spotlight on Polish abortion law. Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/abortion-business-poland-reproductive-rights-warsaw-b341c34d236d51fdda36c2fc7a8aa88c

Gwen Malone Stenography Services. (2013). Inquest Into The Death Of Ms. Savita Halappanavar Held Before The Coroner, Dr. Ciaran Macloughlin, On Wednesday, 10th April 2013 - Day 3. https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/committee/dail/32/joint_committee_on_the_eighth_amendment_of_the_constitution/submissions/2017/2017-10-25_coroner-report-on-ms-savita-halappanavar-dr-peter-boylan-iog_en.pdf

Holland, K. (2018, May 28). How the death of Savita Halappanavar revolutionised Ireland. The Irish Times. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/how-the-death-of-savita-halappanavar-revolutionised-ireland-1.3510387

Holland, K., & Cullen, P. (2012, November 14). Woman “denied a termination” dies in hospital. The Irish Times. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/woman-denied-a-termination-dies-in-hospital-1.551412

Irish Examiner editors. (2006, April 28). “Mother and Child Campaign” opposes adoption by gay couples. Irish Examiner. https://web.archive.org/web/20210318225107/https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30256352.html

Irish Health Service. (2013). Investigation of Incident 50278 from time of patient’s self-referral to hospital on the 21st of October 2012 to the patient’s death on the 28th of October, 2012. https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/nimtreport50278.pdf

Irish Times editors. (2012, November 14). Independent expert to be appointed in Savita review. The Irish Times. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/independent-expert-to-be-appointed-in-savita-review-1.748721

Mazrekaj, D., De Witte, K., & Cabus, S. (2020). School Outcomes of Children Raised by Same-Sex Parents: Evidence from Administrative Panel Data. American Sociological Review, 85(5), 830–856. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122420957249

Mazrekaj, D., Fischer, M. M., & Bos, H. M. W. (2022). Behavioral Outcomes of Children with Same-Sex Parents in The Netherlands. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(10). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19105922

McCammon, S., & Hodges, L. (2022, February 28). Doctors’ worst fears about the Texas abortion law are coming true. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2022/02/28/1083536401/texas-abortion-law-6-months

Power, J. (2017, September 6). FactCheck: are children “better off” with a mother and father than with same-sex parents? The Conversation. http://theconversation.com/factcheck-are-children-better-off-with-a-mother-and-father-than-with-same-sex-parents-82313

Taggart, P. (2013, April 8). Husband testifies his wife died after abortion was denied in Ireland. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2013/04/08/world/europe/ireland-abortion-controversy/index.html

Taggart, P., & Smith-Spark, L. (2013, April 19). Woman’s death in Ireland abortion case ruled “medical misadventure.” CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2013/04/19/world/europe/ireland-abortion-controversy-inquest/index.html

Texas Right to Life. (2022, July 17). Miscarriage Treatment is Not an Abortion in Texas. Texas Right to Life. https://archive.ph/4xEse

What does the scholarly research say about the well-being of children with gay or lesbian parents? (2013, July 10). What We Know Project, Cornell University. https://whatweknow.inequality.cornell.edu/topics/lgbt-equality/what-does-the-scholarly-research-say-about-the-wellbeing-of-children-with-gay-or-lesbian-parents/

White, V. (2013, October 31). Savita’s death is not about abortion — it is about medical negligence. Irishexaminer.com. https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/arid-20247993.html?fbclid=IwAR0SBWEOiyuoFK9N9gY-nEQwYbKfoavxN0mUjAKH0ZkuNBB8f0tH0GOYVU8

Yalgi, A. (2018). A message from Savita’s parents. Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/Together4yes/videos/2044305905892227/

Table of Contents

• Backstory

• Summary

• Following the GRU officer

• Data decay explained

• RyanAFournier's tweet and disappearing engagements

• The wrap-up

• Footnotes

• References

Backstory

On June 16, 2022, Dutch intelligence reported it had stopped a "Russian intelligence officer from gaining access as an intern to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague" [1,2]. AIVD, the General Intelligence and Security Service of the Netherlands, released a statement and a copy of an unusual four-page cover letter written by the GRU officer. 

Bellingcat, an open-source investigation group described by the Russian Federations' spokesperson as "The terror for all things secret" [3], published a report on the GRU officer, including his Twitter account, "VictorKaiserS" [4].

Summary

VictorKaiserS's Twitter history shows a quote tweet of a post from the user RyanAFournier, founder of Students for Trump, who also appears to be the GRU officer's oldest follower. Hoaxlines reviewed the tweet from RyanAFournier to examine whether it showed evidence of data decay, which will be described in more detail below. 

While we don't have the data to tell what type of accounts or actions caused the engagement decline, engagement loss can indicate inauthentic activity or platform manipulation [5,6]. These behaviors sometimes reflect attempts to make ideas or specific users appear more popular than they are [7,8]. 

Following the GRU officer

A notable finding was that RyanAFournier appears to be the oldest follower of the GRU officer [9]. We ascertained this in two ways:

1. A visual inspection of VictorKaiserS's followers showed RyanAFournier as the account's oldest follower.1

2. We pulled VictorKaiserS's follower list via Followerwonk to see if the data also showed the same account for the oldest follower. The data show RyanAFournier as the GRU officer's oldest follower. 

Twitter documentation currently says of the follower order [10]: "At this time, results are ordered with the most recent following first — however, this ordering is subject to unannounced change and eventual consistency issues."

The follower sequence may support the idea that RyanAFournier's follow dates back to at least 2017. Some users that followed VictorKaiserS more recently than RyanAFournier--assuming the data reflect the true reverse chronological follow order--have been inactive since 2017 and 2018. Still, an account can remain inactive (no tweets, retweets, quote-tweets, likes or replies) while also following new users, so sequence serves as a supportive detail rather than definitive evidence. 

That RyanAFournier followed VictorKaiserS could be explained as a byproduct of the I-follow-you-you-follow-me account growth strategy, where Twitter users follow whoever follows them. 

The connection between a highly influential partisan figure and Russian intelligence demonstrates the ease with which state-backed actors can engage with influential Americans. Anyone may gather intelligence, target with malware, or influence. Bad actors need no coordination, prior connection, or consent to elevate, boost, and seize upon organic actors and content that serve foreign interests.  

Data decay explained

Data decay describes the phenomenon where a tweet's engagements, which include retweets, quote-tweets, replies, and likes, decline over time. Disappearing engagements can come from a few scenarios [5,6,11,12]:

1. A user returns to undo the retweet, quote-tweet, like, or reply

2. A user deletes the accounts

3. Twitter suspends the user.

Over time, tweets that are boosted using fake accounts (also known as amplifier bots) can end up losing their likes, retweets, and replies [7]. 

Hoaxlines initially assumed that the lost retweets, quote-tweets, likes, or replies came from account suspensions but later found suspensions were not the only outcome that explained disappearing activity [12]. Some retweets and likes disappear because the account owner returns and unretweets or unlikes the tweet [13–15]. 

In some cases, accounts will change usernames, verifiable by checking the account ID number or voluntarily delete the account altogether [11,16,17]. Platform manipulators may do this to evade detection and removal for violating platform policy, or an account may be "wiped" in preparation for a new identity [5,6,11].  

A 2022 study reported that "bad actors can delete content strategically to manipulate the system." They explain [6]: 

"...coordinated networks of accounts engage in repetitive likes and unlikes of content that is eventually deleted, which can manipulate ranking algorithms. These kinds of abuse can be exploited to amplify content and inflate popularity, while evading detection." 

RyanAFournier's tweet and disappearing engagements

The tweet from RyanAFournier that was quote-tweeted by VictorKaiserS had "18.4K Retweets 1,975 Quote Tweets 68.9K Likes," as of June 19, 2022 [18,19].

Archives show that RyanAFournier's tweet had "28,954 Retweets 98,355 Likes" on August 17, 2018, substantially more than it has today [19,20]. Archives saved before 2020 show counts for quote-tweets and retweets combined, as the platform only started separating them in 2020 [21].

• 18,471 retweets PLUS 1,975 quote tweets = 20,441 total

• 28,954 archived retweets MINUS 20,441 = 8,513 fewer

• 98,355 archived likes MINUS 68,936 likes = 29,419 fewer

Overall between August 17, 2018, and June 19, 2022, RyanAFournier's tweet lost 8,513 retweets (including quote tweets) and 29,419 likes. The largest decline happened in a nearly two-year stretch from 2018 to 2020. In the five months between August 3, 2020, and January 8, 2021, the tweet lost 4,845 likes and 1,293 retweets [22,23].  

• 27,304 Retweets 90,556 Likes - Dec 23, 2017

• 28,125 Retweets 93,481 Likes - Jan 8, 2018

• 28,954 Retweets 98,355 Likes - Aug 17, 2018

• 24,879 Retweets 87,391 Likes - Jun 15, 2020

• 24,441 Retweets 86,247 Likes - Aug 3, 2020

• 23,148 Retweets 81,402 Likes - Jan 8, 2021

The wrap-up

If the data are as Twitter documentation suggests, then the oldest current follower of VictorKaiserS, an account belonging to a GRU officer, is RyanAFournier, the founder of Students for Trump. The data also show that the GRU officer interacted with a tweet authored by RyanAFournier about former President Trump and his first impeachment. RyanAFournier's tweet lost 8,513 retweets (including quote tweets) and 29,419 likes between 2018 and today, suggesting the tweet may have been boosted by inauthentic activity. 

Although there are explanations that reflect nothing untoward, one must also consider the well-documented history of interference in American politics and elections by the Russian state [24–30]; the Students for Trump organization's role in spreading false election claims (Sharpiegate)2 [31–35]; conspiracy theories and disinformation likely contributing to the violence on January 6, 2021 [36–40]; and Turning Point described participants in a large-scale platform manipulation campaign that was likened to a "troll farm" that resulted in at least one party getting banned from Facebook as "Students For Trump digital activists" [41–45].

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Footnotes

1

2

References

1. AVID. Cover identity of Russian intelligence officer. In: The General Intelligence and Security Service of the Netherlands [Internet]. 16 Jun 2022 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://english.aivd.nl/publications/publications/2022/06/16/cover-identity-of-russian-intelligence-officer

2. AVID. The AIVD: Who we are. In: General Intelligence and Security Service of the Netherlands [Internet]. 11 Oct 2019 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://english.aivd.nl/about-aivd/the-aivd-who-we-are

3. Grozev C. Christo Grozev. In: Twitter [Internet]. 2022 [cited 2022]. Available: https://twitter.com/christogrozev

4. Bellingcat. The Brazilian Candidate: The Studious Cover Identity of an Alleged Russian Spy. In: Bellingcat [Internet]. 16 Jun 2022 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2022/06/16/the-brazilian-candidate-the-studious-cover-identity-of-an-alleged-russian-spy/

5. Elmas T, Overdorf R, Özkalay AF, Aberer K. Ephemeral Astroturfing Attacks: The Case of Fake Twitter Trends. arXiv [cs.CR]. 2019. Available: http://arxiv.org/abs/1910.07783

6. Torres-Lugo C, Pote M, Nwala A, Menczer F. Manipulating Twitter Through Deletions. arXiv [cs.SI]. 2022. Available: http://arxiv.org/abs/2203.13893

7. Wild J, Godart C. Spotting bots, cyborgs and inauthentic activity. In: DataJournalism.com [Internet]. 13 Mar 2020 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://datajournalism.com/read/handbook/verification-3/investigating-actors-content/3-spotting-bots-cyborgs-and-inauthentic-activity

8. Anise O, Wright J. Anatomy of Twitter Bots: Amplification Bots. In: Duo Labs [Internet]. 2018 [cited 6 Dec 2021]. Available: https://duo.com/labs/research/anatomy-of-twitter-bots-amplification-bots

9. Hoaxlines. People following Victor Muller F. (@VictorKaiserS) on 2022.06.17. In: Nimbus Capture [Internet]. 2022 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://hoaxlines.nimbusweb.me/share/7112322/le4foxuowmr6nh91xhhm

10. Twitter. Follow, search, and get users. In: Twitter Developer Platform [Internet]. 2022 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://developer.twitter.com/en/docs/twitter-api/v1/accounts-and-users/follow-search-get-users/api-reference/get-followers-list#:~:text=At%20this%20time%2C%20results%20are%20ordered%20with%20the%20most%20recent%20following%20first%20%E2%80%94%20however%2C%20this%20ordering%20is%20subject%20to%20unannounced%20change%20and%20eventual%20consistency%20issues.

11. Norteño C. In most cases, these accounts deleted all their old tweets as part of the makeover. Some were not as thorough about it as others, such as @FMAR122 which still has tweets from 2015 advertising it as “YOUR #1 POLE PARTY HEADQUARTERS”. #YouHadOneJob pic.twitter.com/awQ9zeHiiM. In: Twitter [Internet]. 6 Feb 2021 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available:

12. Hoaxlines. High-profile “TruckersforFreedom” tweets boosted by accounts that also amplified “Pfizergate.” In: Hoaxlines [Internet]. 14 Feb 2022 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://novelscience.substack.com/p/high-profile-supporters-of-truck

13. Norteño C. We observed this network for a few days and noticed something interesting: the replies with the images of the fake Elon Musk watch tweets get deleted after a few days. Over a period of 45 hours, the network tweeted 1634 new replies and deleted 1765 old ones. pic.twitter.com/2AkZlPvXc4. In: Twitter [Internet]. 20 Aug 2021 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available:

14. Kausar S, Tahir B, Mehmood MA. Towards Understanding Trends Manipulation in Pakistan Twitter. arXiv [cs.IR]. 2021. Available: http://arxiv.org/abs/2109.14872

15. Elmas T, Llewellyn C, Evkoski B, Zubiaga A, Jones K, Gorrell G. A Longitudinal Dataset of Twitter ISIS Users. In: DeepAI [Internet]. 2 Feb 2022 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://deepai.org/publication/a-longitudinal-dataset-of-twitter-isis-users

16. Li ER. Example of bot-like account changing username. In: Gyazo [Internet]. 2021 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://gyazo.com/8258b9a3335b9eba9294f459bbeea56a

17. Elmas T, Overdorf R, Akgül ÖF, Aberer K. Misleading Repurposing on Twitter. arXiv [cs.SI]. 2020. Available: http://arxiv.org/abs/2010.10600

18. VictorKaiserS. Victor Muller F. on Twitter: “That`s a strong point . In: archive.ph [Internet]. 19 Jun 2022 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://archive.ph/IYLQA

19. RyanAFournier. June 2022 archive of tweet from RyanAFournier. In: Twitter [Internet]. 19 Jun 2022 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://archive.ph/FC0BA

20. RyanAFournier. Archive of RyanAFournier tweet from August 2018. In: Twitter [Internet]. 2018 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://web.archive.org/web/20180817165035/

21. Hutchinson A. Twitter May Soon Display Retweets and Quote Tweets in Separate Counts. 28 Jul 2020 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/twitter-may-soon-display-retweets-and-quote-tweets-in-separate-counts/582469/

22. RyanAFournier. August 2020 archive of RyanAFournier tweet. In: Twitter [Internet]. 2020 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://web.archive.org/web/20200803145354/

23. RyanAFournier. January 2021 archive of RyanAFournier tweet. In: Twitter [Internet]. 2021 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://web.archive.org/web/20210108210909/

24. CIA, FBI, and NSA. Background to “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections”: The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution. In: DNI [Internet]. 2017 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf

25. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. Exposing Russia’s Effort to Sow Discord Online: The Internet Research Agency and Advertisements. In: House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence [Internet]. 2017 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://intelligence.house.gov/social-media-content/

26. Howard P, Ganesh B, Liotsiou D, Kelly J, Francois C. The IRA, Social Media and Political Polarization in the United States, 2012-2018. 2018. Available: https://demtech.oii.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/93/2018/12/The-IRA-Social-Media-and-Political-Polarization.pdf

27. François C, Nimmo B, Shawn Eib C. The IRA CopyPasta Campaign. In: Graphika [Internet]. 2019 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://graphika.com/copypasta

28. Nimmo B, François C, Shawn Eib C, Ronzaud L. IRA Again: Unlucky Thirteen. In: Graphika [Internet]. 2020 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://graphika.com/reports/ira-again-unlucky-thirteen/

29. Al-Rawi A, Rahman A. Manufacturing rage: The Russian Internet Research Agency’s political astroturfing on social media. FMRI Tech Rep. 2020 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. doi:10.5210/fm.v25i9.10801

30. Linvill DL, Warren PL. Troll Factories: Manufacturing Specialized Disinformation on Twitter. Political Communication. 2020;37: 447–467.

31. Mayer J. The Big Money Behind the Big Lie. The New Yorker. 30 Jul 2021. Available: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/08/09/the-big-money-behind-the-big-lie. Accessed 20 Jun 2022.

32. TrumpStudents. Students for Trump Sharpiegate tweet from November 4, 2020. In: Gyazo [Internet]. 2020 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://gyazo.com/c8f238625e6232416b70980c8b65cc6a

33. GeneralBrnovich. We have received hundreds of voter complaints regarding Sharpies at polling locations. Accordingly, we sent this letter to Maricopa County election officials. Let’s get some answers. In: Twitter [Internet]. 2022 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available:

34. Binder M. #SharpieGate: Debunked conspiracy theory leads to scary situation in Arizona. In: Mashable [Internet]. 5 Nov 2020 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://mashable.com/article/sharpiegate-trump-supporters-arizona

35. RyanAFournier. Deleted Sharpiegate tweet from RyanAFournier. In: Twitter [Internet]. 2020 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Link.

36. Cable J, Garcia-Camargo I, Diresta R, Observatory SI, Graphika Team. A Look Into Viral North Macedonian Content Farms. In: Election Integrity Partnership [Internet]. 13 Oct 2020 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://www.eipartnership.net/rapid-response/north-macedonian-content-farms

37. Romero L. Experts say echo chambers from apps like Parler and Gab contributed to attack on Capitol. In: ABC News [Internet]. 2021 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://abcnews.go.com/US/experts-echo-chambers-apps-parler-gab-contributed-attack/story?id=75141014

38. Munn L. More than a mob: Parler as preparatory media for the U.S. Capitol storming. First Monday. 2021. doi:10.5210/fm.v26i3.11574

39. Skibinski M. Special Report: 87% of news shared on Parler before Jan. 6th came from misinformation sites. In: NewsGuard [Internet]. 17 Feb 2021 [cited 12 May 2022]. Available: https://www.newsguardtech.com/special-reports/special-report-parler-data/

40. Collinson S. Scenes of sickening violence at the Capitol open January 6 committee’s case against Trump and his insurrectionist conspiracy. CNN. 10 Jun 2022. Available: https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/10/politics/january-6-hearing-donald-trump/index.html. Accessed 20 Jun 2022.

41. Stanley-Becker I. Pro-Trump youth group enlists teens in secretive campaign likened to a “troll farm,” prompting rebuke by Facebook and Twitter. The Washington Post. 15 Sep 2020. Available: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/turning-point-teens-disinformation-trump/2020/09/15/c84091ae-f20a-11ea-b796-2dd09962649c_story.html. Accessed 15 Feb 2022.

42. Stanley-Becker I. Facebook bans marketing firm running “troll farm” for pro-Trump youth group. The Washington Post. 8 Oct 2020. Available: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/10/08/facebook-bans-media-consultancy-running-troll-farm-pro-trump-youth-group/. Accessed 20 Jun 2022.

43. Overly S. Facebook bans firm behind Turning Point’s election troll farm. In: POLITICO [Internet]. [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/08/facebook-turning-point-election-troll-427985

44. Stanford Internet Observatory. Analysis of an October 2020 Facebook Takedown Linked to U.S. Political Consultancy Rally Forge. In: Stanford Internet Observatory [Internet]. 2020 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/news/oct-2020-fb-rally-forge

45. ADL. Turning Point USA. In: ADL [Internet]. 2019 [cited 20 Jun 2022]. Available: https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounder/turning-point-usa

Pro-Kremlin and Russian state-affiliated websites, persons, and entities have framed the coming food crisis as the fault of sanctions and Ukraine. The crisis is caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s theft of Ukrainian grain, blocked exportation, and the destruction of stored grain. Russia accuses Ukraine of all of these.

Anders Åslund details Russia’s actions thus far:

Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s grain exports may cause starvation of up to 47 million people.

Russia has blocked and mined all of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and hindered nearly all of Ukraine’s exports, notably of grain.

Opening Ukraine's ports for shipping, especially Odesa, must be an urgent international priority.

In some cases, the content frames the coming food shortages as the product of sanctions intended to hurt Russia but that hurt countries in Africa instead.

• Russian disinformation portrays Russia as an ally of Africa wanting to get grain there rather than the reason for famine.

• Belarus is offered as evidence of Russia’s claims.

• Russia casts itself as an anti-colonial actor on the side of Africans, but its behavior is some of the most malignant imperialist exploitation in recent history.

The visceral unpopularity that will be endured by whoever is perceived as responsible for mass starvation appears to be something that Russia is keen to avoid.

• NATO allies and partner countries should counter these false claims immediately, and not entertain them as serious statements in diplomatic forums.

• Evidence of Russian theft and destruction of grain has been a constant thread since the beginning of the invasion. Hoaxlines documented some of this in an earlier record.

One noteworthy element has been the positive coverage of Turkey, France, and Germany, seeming to paint them as reasonable NATO countries, while implying Ukraine is causing Russia’s man-made food shortage.

• The positive press may aim to incentivize further cooperation with Russian aims by obstructing support for Ukraine or it might be an effort to divide the mostly unified Western front against the invasion of Ukraine.

Examples of content

Original and incorrect spellings have been retained in the headlines and text.

Refutations of specific arguments

The following are true or mostly true statements that the Russian state has “debunked” or dismissed.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

• The Special Military Operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine and Donbass has endangered the world’s food supply (Source: Comments by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/EU Commission Vice-President Josep Borrell following the EU Foreign Affairs Council, 11 April 2022, Brussels).

• Russia is occupying Ukrainian lands and shelling Ukraine's farmlands. The sowing campaign in Ukraine in 2022 is under threat. (Source: Blog post of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell «Food Insecurity: The Time to Act is Now», 7 April 2022).

• Russia is intentionally destroying Ukrainian agriculture, including machinery, granaries and infrastructure. (Source: Address by President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum in Davos, 24 May 2022)

• Russia is blocking grain supplies via the Black Sea. (Source: Comment by President of the European Council Charles Michel during his visit to Odessa on 9 May 2022)

• Russia is weaponising grain stocks and reducing grain and fertilizer supplies in response to Western sanctions. (Source: Speech by President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum in Davos, 24 May 2022).

• EU sanctions against Russia do not affect on food security, since the agricultural sector of the Russian economy is not the target of EU restrictions. (Source: Blog post of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell «Food Insecurity: The Time to Act is Now», 7 April 2022)

• The Special Military Operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine and Donbass has led to an unprecedented rise of energy prices (Source: Statement by European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson, 8 March 2022).

• Russia is using energy supplies for political purposes. (Source: Blog post “Europe’s energy security and EU-US cooperation” by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, 6 February 2022).

Russian state-controlled outlets

• Millions of tons of Ukrainian grain exports: Zelensky delay in the open sea corridor, threatening the world with a global food crisis - Global Research

• Everyone has their own interests in the issue of wheat export from Ukraine - News Front

• Bad harvest forecast for EU - RT

• Britain’s food supply at risk - RT

• Germany has plan to help ‘prevent global famine’ - RT

• Putin points to boomerang effect of sanctions - RT

• UN comment about the allegations of grain thief - RT

• Ukraine sets condition for resuming grain exports - RT

• DPR: Damaged storehouses, burnt grains stockpiles were spotted in Mariupol seaport - Ruptly

• Turkey: Russia to guarantee safe passage for grain export if Ukraine clears mines - Lavrov - Ruptly

• “LAND BRIDGE” FROM RUSSIA TO CRIMEA COMPLETED. “PUTIN TO GO TO TRANSNISTRIA” – US INTELLIGENCE - SouthFront

• Anti-Russian sanctions have left Africa without access to grain and Fertilizer, the head of the African Union, said - Sputnik international

• Kiev Regime Admits Grain of Truth in Global Food Crisis - Strategic Culture

• Kremlin calls out Zelensky regime’s grain bluff - TASS

• Official says Zaporozhye grain is sold in US via third countries despite sanctions - TASS

• African Union chairperson praises France’s willingness to help with Ukrainian grain export - TASS

• Belarus’ Lukashenko says Russia offers seven routes to export Ukrainian grain - TASS

• EU sanctions hamper deliveries from Russia, may lead to famine in Africa — Senegal - TASS

• Russia says nationalists intentionally burned some 50,000 tons of grain in Mariupol silo- TASS

• Russia offering UN concrete ideas on export of grain from Ukraine, assures envoy - TASS

Backlinked to Russian-state-controlled website

• Grain burned by Ukrainian nationalists - Newsnet.fr

• Germany has plan to help ‘prevent global famine’ - Kashco.co.uk

• Millions of Tons of Ukrainian Grain Exports: Zelensky’s Delay In Opening A Sea Corridor Threatens the World with A Global Food Crisis - Counter Information

• Ukraine Safe-Passage Grain-Talks Fail, Expect Still Higher Food Prices Globally - Zero Hedge

Diplomatic or official social media

• The only thing Ukraine needs to do to unblock food exports is to remove its sea mines and allow ships with grain to leave the Ukrainian ports. - Twitter - Mikhail Ulyanov

• Erdogan says he’d like to discuss ‘grain corridor’ from Ukraine with Putin, Zelensky - Twitter - TASS

• The current situation with 🇺🇦grain has nothing to do with a #foodcrisis. The share of Ukrainian #grain that is at stake is less than 1️⃣% of the global production of wheat and other cereals. - Twitter - Russian Embassy, UK

• 💬 Russia will not be the obstacle for grain exports 💬 However, there are approx. 1,000 of sea mines surrounding the port of Odessa and preventing int. ships from entering - Twitter - Russian Mission in Geneva

• ❌Myth: 🇷🇺weaponises grain stocks, reduces grain & fertilizer supplies in response to sanctions ✅Fact: Western sanctions are the main obstacle to normal export relations between 🇷🇺&🇧🇾 and buyers of grain & fertilizers - Twitter - Russian Embassy in Kenya

  

  • Also tweeted by mfa_Russia

Pro-Kremlin social media

• Senegal’s President Sall: "The sanctions against Russia have worsened this situation and now we have no access to grain from Russia, mainly wheat. And, most importantly, we have no access to fertilizers. The situation was bad and now it has worsened…” - Twitter - Max Blumenthal retweeted by elenaevdokimov7

• Discussion of Ukraine as having mined its own beaches - Twitter - RWAPodcast

• Do you really think that Ukraine cares about a possible famine in Africa? - Twitter - elenaevdokimov7

• Yesterday the Kiev regime confirmed it refuses to demine the port of Odessa to allow the export of grain - Twitter - WyattReed13

• But CNN told me it was PUTIN who was responsible for withholding Ukrainian grain in exchange for political concessions!! (screenshot of RT article)- Twitter - jacksonhinklle retweeted by Russ_Warrior

• be EU sanction Russia Russia one of the largest fertilizer & grain producers supplies drop prices skyrocket
  
  cope_and_seethe.jpeg - Twitter - AlexeiArora retweeted by Russ_Warrior

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Sections
Summary
Story timelines and network analysis
The disinformation
Disclaimer
References
Footnotes

Summary

• Pro-Kremlin media used the firing of an official to discredit Ukrainian rape victims, even though this official was not the only source of information. Two pieces of content that cited the same article were republished on many other websites. Russian intelligence controls at least one of the republishing websites.

• After articles from RT and Moon of Alabama came out on May 31, 2022, English-language websites started to publish content claiming Ukrainian reports of rape were not valid. Outlets backlinking to this story included those that Miburo, a malign influence research group, and the federal government have identified as part of the Russian propaganda and disinformation ecosystem. The Moon of Alabama article was linked to and mentioned significantly more often than the RT article.

• The dismissive stories surfaced after the Ukrainian government dismissed Lyudmila Denisova, a human rights official. Denisova “did not set up humanitarian corridors and the exchange of prisoners,” the Ukrainian government said. Instead, she focused on sharing stories about sexual assaults, for which she could not share evidence. This performance was unacceptable to the Ukrainian government.

• In sexual assault crimes, officials and law enforcement often cannot share more information without exposing the victim to further trauma. The Epstein trial is an example of this. Evidence of rape as a weapon in this war did not come from the dismissed official alone. The most compelling evidence is physical. Medical examiners found evidence of rape among victims of mass killings in Bucha.

• On June 6, at the 9056th meeting of the UN Security Council, representatives from Ghana, Brazil, Belgium, and Germany condemned the behavior of Russian soldiers in response to reports of their weaponizing rape against Ukrainian civilians.

Story timelines and network analysis

Moon of Alabama

On May 31, RT.com and Moon of Alabama published stories. Both outlets portrayed the claims about war crimes, including the accusations of sexual assault of adults and children, as totally without merit. RT is a popular outlet under the control of the Russian state, but that article didn’t attract as much attention as the piece published on Moon of Alabama.

Moon of Alabama is a pro-Kremlin website that at least one extremist researcher has reported to Hoaxlines is popular with QAnon and other conspiracy groups. Before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Moon of Alabama had been referenced or shared by pro-Kremlin, QAnon, and White Supremacist groups. Belarusian KGB, Russian-language channels, and hyperpartisan English-language channels cited Moon of Alabama.

Hoaxlines found at least 53 backlinks to the Moon of Alabama article within the first week, meaning that 53 other locations had likely backlinked or republished the Moon of Alabama article.

Moon of Alabama → Zero Hedge

The Zero Hedge article was republished on influential websites like Global Research (1.3 million visits in the past three months) and InfoWars (8.5 million visits in the past three months) and was translated into many other languages.

• Zero Hedge was the first significant outlet besides RT to write about this story. It did so on June 1 and backlinked to the Moon of Alabama.

• The Zero Hedge piece was republished or cited by dozens of other websites like Global Research, Freedom of Thought, Sott.net, and Infowars on the same day, June 1.

• By June 2, six different Substack publishers had backlinked to the story: SÁT-CỘNG, a Skeptic, Strange Sounds, Eric Rosen, Lioness Of Judah Ministry, and Richard Duke.

• Other-language outlets picked up the story rapidly, too.

  • Front Nieuws republished the Zero Hedge article on June 1.

  • Greek-language site Agonaskritis.gr republished on June 2.

  • The Zero Hedge story appeared on a Japanese-language website by June 4.

Moon of Alabama → Caitlin Johnstone

• RT contributor Caitlin Johnstone1 published an article on June 1 on a namesake website, Medium, and Substack. A video with an audio version was published on YouTube on May 31, ahead of the articles.

• The cross-posted article cited Moon of Alabama.

• The Strategic Culture Foundation was among the websites republishing or backlinking to Johnstone’s article. The U.S. Treasury describes it as “an online journal registered in Russia that is directed by the SVR and closely affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.”

  • The website “publishes conspiracy theorists, giving them a broader platform to spread disinformation, while trying to obscure the Russian origins.”

  • Strategic Culture was sanctioned by the U.S. “for having engaged in foreign interference in the U.S. 2020 presidential election.”

Caitlin Johnstone → Strategic Culture → Strategic Culture → Zero Hedge

• Strategic Culture Foundation republished an abridged version of the Johnstone article, linking back to the version published on the open-publishing platform Medium on June 2.

• The following day, June 3, Strategic Culture published a different piece from Pepe Escobar, which backlinked to the Johnstone article from June 2.

• With its backlink to the Johnstone article, the Escobar article was distributed across a dozen websites that frequently republish pro-Kremlin content.

  • Some outlets like Newsnet.fr, Sott.net, and The Alt World republished or backlinked to the Johnstone and Escobar articles.

• Zero Hedge republished the Escobar article that first appeared in Strategic Culture, according to the Telegr.ph version. Thus, the backlink direction went Caitlin Johnstone → Strategic Culture → Strategic Culture → Zero Hedge.

The Alt World (June 1).

• Other authors published in The Alt World have ties to Russian state-affiliated media, like Scott Ritter (article; work for or shared by the Russian state), Alastair Crooke (article; content creator for Strategic Culture, a sanctioned SVR-run outlet), Eva Barlett (article; RT contributor), and Dilyana Gaytandzhieva (article; a content creator for SouthFront, an FSB-operated outlet).

The Francophone Saker (June 1).

• The French-language version of The Saker republished the Moon of Alabama article but also linked to Johnstone’s article.

• The Francophone Saker is part of the Saker family of websites (The Saker in various languages) that disinformation research organizations have called “a franchise for an international network of pro-Kremlin outlets.”

• Hoaxlines assesses the site as a “partner” based on our definition, independent researchers, the U.S. State Department’s mention of the website in “Pillars of Russia’s Disinformation and Propaganda Ecosystem,” and The Saker’s partnership with SouthFront, “an online disinformation site registered in Russia that receives taskings from the FSB.”

  • SouthFront, according to the U.S. federal government, “targets military enthusiasts, veterans, and conspiracy theorists” and has been sanctioned by the U.S. for “acting on behalf of the FSB.”

Sott.net (June 1).

• Sott.net backlinked and republished the Substack version of the Johnstone article. It then published an article from Zero Hedge on the same topic, taking the same stance. This may indicate that editorial decision-making is outsourced to RSS aggregation.
  

  

• Sott.net also republished Strategic Culture’s Escobar story.

  • On the French-language version, fr.Sott.net, the Escobar story was republished but sourced from Réseau International.

  • Reseau International is an outlet known for publishing content from the GRU via InfoRos.

• Hoaxlines assesses Sott.net as a “partner” because of its previous partnership with SouthFront, “an online disinformation site registered in Russia that receives taskings from the FSB.” As mentioned earlier, SouthFront “targets military enthusiasts, veterans, and conspiracy theorists” and has been sanctioned by the U.S. for “acting on behalf of the FSB.”

Consortium News (June 1).

• Consortium News is an outlet categorized as “hyper-partisan left” by Ad Fontes Media, which uses evidence-based assessment and bipartisan reviewers.

• According to Consortium News, the outlet has a history of processing “donations from North America” for Russia Insider.
  

  

• The outlet denies that Russia Insider was part of Consortium News and stated, “Russia Insider republishes our stories…without our permission and against our wishes.”

Lew Rockwell (June 2).

• Rockwell founded the Mises Institute, described as “a concerted effort to disseminate climate opposition discourse, featuring a clear spike in published articles during 2019.”

• The MCFC’s assessment of the Lew Rockwell website was poor. “Overall, we rate Lew Rockwell questionable based on extreme right bias, promotion of propaganda, conspiracy theories, pseudoscience, and failed fact checks.”

The disinformation

The articles undermine victims’ rape and sexual assault claims by presenting a dismissed official as evidence that the claims were fabricated. Evidence that rape has been weaponized is strong, and physical evidence has already been collected from victims. Russian soldiers have uploaded images of many types of crimes, and intercepted calls from soldiers suggest that rape is widespread.

Some victims have chosen to speak publicly, but we should not blame them for not wanting to share details. For too many unfortunate women, Russian soldiers appear to have murdered them after the assault. Their fates are known only from the evidence left behind. Some families decide to tell their lost loved ones’ stories. In late April, medical examiners found evidence of rape among the deceased:

Forensic doctors carrying out postmortem examinations on bodies in mass graves north of Kyiv say they have found evidence some women were raped before being killed by Russian forces.

Sima Bacchus, Executive Director of UN Women, stated on April 11, 2022:

The war has forced millions of Ukrainian women and girls to leave their homes, jobs and schools in the middle of the night and flee from bombs and shelling. Among those who remained, there are many victims - gang rapes, murders and other crimes are reported. A whole generation of Ukrainian women has been traumatized. At the same time, thousands of Ukrainian women help their compatriots survive the war by staying at their jobs. The Security Council today discussed the consequences of the war for children and the female half of Ukraine.

Katerina Turtle, head of the Ukrainian human rights organization La Strada, said:

We know that many of these crimes are unlikely to be solved or never will be solved. Many of the victims were killed by Russian occupiers who tried to cover up these crimes. We know about all these atrocities, and we want you to hear that the Russian invaders in Ukraine use violence and rape as a weapon.

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Recommended reads

• A Decade of Deceit: Over ten years of pro-Kremlin narratives from a single Twitter user

• After Putin’s bungled invasion, Russian state media still ran a now-deleted victory article

Disclaimer

A 2020 U.S. Department of State report wrote, “Russia’s disinformation and propaganda ecosystem is the collection of official, proxy, and unattributed communication channels and platforms that Russia uses to create and amplify false narratives” (pg 3).

The nature of malign influence necessitates clear definitions and terms; however, this risks unfair application. To be as equitable as possible, we wish to clarify the following:

• We do not imply that any individuals or outlets mentioned engage in nefarious or criminal acts.

• Inclusion reflects website behavior and the definitions outlined, not guesswork or suspicion, and it does not necessarily indicate that an author or website intends to collaborate with the Russian state.

References

• Definitions

• Entities funded or controlled by the Russian state

Footnotes

What’s happening?

The illegitimate official installed by Russia in the Kherson region at the end of April is asking to join Russia without a referendum or other veneer of legality.

What’s the backstory?

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated previously that a pseudo-referendum in Kherson, would trigger a withdrawal from the negotiation process. Sidestepping the referendum process may be an attempt to avoid blame for ending negotiations while still claiming more Ukrainian territory.

What’s false?

Portraying Kherson as a willing applicant “dreaming of reuniting” with Russia does not reflect the reality of citizens in the location. Examples of articles with a misleading presentation:

• Kherson region authorities to ask Putin to join Russia, from Pravda

• Pro-Moscow leaders of Ukraine's occupied Kherson seek to join Russia, from Reuters, which is simply re-publishing TASS

  • Republishing of Reuters’ republication of TASS: Pro-Moscow Leaders Of Ukraine’s Occupied Kherson Seek To Join Russia

Russia projects legitimacy by putting people in positions of power and then pretending it is only responding to a sincere request. The existence of so-called "separatists" is largely exaggerated and is an example of how the Kremlin skillfully distorts its actions via media reporting. 

Even when legitimate media organizations cover the story, the subtle re-framing muddies the clear illegality and injustice. This tempers political will to act since leaders in the West must contend with voter wishes. 

A replay of the past

In 2014, the Kremlin created the appearance of an organic separatist movement by sending people to Crimea. These were not Ukrainians who simply wanted to join Russia, but people intentionally placed there to create a misleading impression of the situation. The referendums were widely believed to be rigged and substantial, sophisticated propaganda has been dispatched to influence perception of the situation.

Former Ukrainian President Poroshenko stressed in an interview that the “separatists" were a “terrorist” group "supported by Russia, trained by Russia, armed by Russia." Poroshenko asked in 2014 for these Russian-backed groups to be labeled terrorists by the international community. They were not. Russia has nurtured secessionist movements outside of its borders but it has also violently squelched out any dissent at home—and sometimes even abroad.

Vox reported about the misleading portrayal in 2014:

Separatist rebels began popping up in eastern Ukraine shortly after Russia had invaded and annexed Crimea, where supposed Crimean separatists actually turned out to be unmarked Russian special forces. They seized towns like Sloviansk and Donetsk, in the eastern region known as Donbas, ostensibly in outrage against the protests that had toppled Ukraine's pro-Russia President Viktor Yanukovych, himself from that same eastern region.

This misleading impression, which obfuscated “Moscow’s role in organizing, financing, and arming the separatist forces and leadership,” may partially explain Western inaction.

Other false justifications

• Claims of genocide against Russian-speakers are likewise without merit, as the Ukrainian President is well known for being a Russian speaker.

• Putin accused the country of Georgia of genocide back in 2008, too, to justify the Russian invasion of Georgia.

EUvsDISINFO has documented articles making false claims about genocide from Russia over the years. In an article addressing the key false narratives from Russia, EUvsDISINFO wrote:

Such claims have been unequivocally debunked by independent Russian media, among others. None of the multiple reports on the human rights situation in Ukraine, which are regularly published by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, or the reports of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission come even close to referencing genocide in Ukraine.

Where have we seen this before: Throughout the years, the pro-Kremlin media have used the word “genocide” liberally, to describe things that have nothing to do with large-scale human rights violations, thus undermining this term of international law itself. Examples include alleged water and visa “genocide” in Crimea and “genocide” of Ukrainians refusing to buy Sputnik V vaccine.

Playing the hero

False claims about genocide seem to be an attempt to draw a parallel between the NATO airstrikes in the former Yugoslavia that ended several years of ethnic cleansing and genocide in the region. The two situations are not comparable. NATO acted to stop genocide; Russia is perpetrating it.

See the above thread for more details about why the comparisons can’t stand up to scrutiny.

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Hoaxlines database

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Russian state is falsely claims that Ukraine has “repeated” the “Bucha provocation.” Russia was responsible for Bucha, and this has been confirmed by independent analysts, journalists, NGOs, and multiple governments. Given its pattern of behavior, Russia may have massacred civilians in Kharkiv and is attempting to deflect blame.

The RussiaUN Twitter account first made the claim and it was retweeted by Russian embassy accounts for Montenegro, Israel, as well as some accounts that are likely fake.

The tweets link an article that makes extreme claims with no evidence citing “reliable sources.” The document which was shared by the Russian UN account on Twitter says:

“According to reliable information, the Kiev regime has carried out another bloody action in Kharkov Region based on the Bucha scenario” and “We warn in advance that these and other materials fabricated by the Kiev regime about alleged ‘Russian atrocities’ are soon to be widely spread through the Western and Ukrainian media, as well as online resources.”

The post also alleges that “Norwegian media” witnessed attacks on Russian civilians, but doesn’t cite any sources. We have not been able to locate any reports. Russia claims to have evidence, so Hoaxlines advises that people be aware of the potential for doctored videos and to only share what can be verified.

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The last officially recognized death count announced by Russia was 1,351 on March 25th. Using the Ukrainian loss estimates, the death benefits the Kremlin owes to the soldiers’ families have already reached $4.3 billion. The forecast reflects the payments Putin personally promised to families in early March.

A draft resolution from Russia indicates that the Kremlin is seeking to classify information about the dead soldier’s families. This may make it harder, or even impossible, for families to claim benefits and for people to return bodies to families. Typically, the process is handled by the social insurance authorities rather than the military. The move could allow the military to conceal deaths and deny benefits broadly.

Excuses from the Kremlin as of May 7th

Your son didn’t die; he’s just missing.

A family received the letter below, translated. The military prosecutor's office officially informed Dmytro Shkrebets that the ship was not part of Ukraine's territorial waters, did not take part in the "special operation," and his son was declared "missing in the military unit.”

Shkrebets reported on Vkontakte that his son was aboard the Moskva and was listed as "missing,” earlier in the war.

He died on the border, so sorry, but we’re not paying.

A post about a Russian soldier refers to him as dying on the border with Ukraine, but where precisely that means is something of a mystery. Russia does not recognize Ukraine's sovereign borders. From the Kremlin’s perspective, Ukraine does not exist. The lone exception appears to be when paying death benefits is concerned.

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Wikipedia contained over 55 million articles in 300 languages by its twentieth birthday in 2021 and is one of the most engaged websites globally. While it can be a helpful place to find sources, Wikipedia remains vulnerable to mis- and disinformation websites masquerading as legitimate sources and editing wars.

To better understand the vulnerability of Wikipedia to mis- and disinformation, EUvsDISINFO studied references and citations to four well-known pro-Kremlin disinformation outlets–SouthFront, NewsFront, InfoRos, and Strategic Culture Foundation. The State Department has identified each of these websites as having ties to Russian intelligence.

The scope of the problem is unlikely to be limited to these four websites, but as Wikipedia has already taken action against these four sites, they proved useful case study examples.

Results

Researchers found the four websites had been referenced in at least 625 articles and had at some point appeared in no fewer than 690 articles.

• The bulk of the articles referred to southfront.org (57%), followed by news-front.info (27%).

• The majority of references to a Kremlin-controlled source appeared in one of five language versions of Wikipedia, including Russian (136 articles), Arabic (70 articles), Spanish (52 articles), Portuguese (45 articles), and Vietnamese (32).

• The most common topics with links to Russian sources included conflicts in the Middle East, featuring keywords such as “Syria/Syrian,” “offensive,” “(civil) war,” and also “Russian” or “intervention.” See word cloud.

These findings highlight a common problem with disinformation sources like Russian state-sponsored outlets RT and Sputnik. The websites mainly publish reliable coverage of world events, but they also slip in biased or misleading information on select topics of interest to the Kremlin.

Credible reporting makes the disinformation harder to detect and may make it more effective. RT and Sputnik also employ a cadre of Western authors who regularly author divisive and inflammatory content. Citing state-controlled media when it reports reliably is thus, unwise since it sets up readers to trust outlets that may ultimately mislead them on critical issues.

Wikipedia policies

Wikipedia does not explicitly ban disinformation websites in its article on reliable sources, though it mentions “state-sponsored fake news sites.” The explainer states: 

“Some sources are blacklisted, and can not be used at all. Blacklisting is generally reserved for sources which are added abusively, such as state-sponsored fake news sites with a history of addition by troll farms. Specific blacklisted sources can be locally whitelisted; see Wikipedia: Blacklist for other details about blacklisting.”

Solutions

Citations of disinformation threaten Wikipedia's reputation and the integrity of its service, but Wikipedia can change this. 

• A more comprehensive listing of affiliated websites would be an improvement. 

  • For example, RT and Sputnik are listed as unreliable, but with no mention of SNA, the German version of Sputnik appears. 

• Another change that could improve information quality is enforcing guidelines already standard on the English version of Wikipedia in other languages. 

  • English-language Wikipedia expressly states that state-sponsored disinformation sites are not legitimate sources. 

  • Still, EUvsDISINFO’s study shows designating sources as illegitimate hasn’t stopped the websites from being cited or referenced in other-language Wikipedia pages. 

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Summary

Flags are an easily identifiable expression of support that transcends language. Pro-Kremlin accounts are circulating images and videos of either foreign rallies supporting Russia or the posts claiming that a Russian flag has been raised in a Ukrainian town. We wanted to examine how the Russian state used the Russian flag in messaging after seeing it circulate in videos showing rallies and flags being raised in cities not under Russian control.

In some cases, as with the two most-mentioned locations, Mariupol and Kherson, the Russian occupation’s claims are repeated over and over, as if they claimed some cities multiple times. Kherson was violently occupied by Russian forces for weeks, while Mariupol has resisted.

The aim of the messaging remains unknown, but we have made some observations. Groups sharing the content were not limited to Russian-affiliated channels. QAnon followers and extremist groups shared content showing either Russian success or support for Russia globally.

Big Picture

• The top three locations mentioned in flag-raising posts were Mariupol, Kherson, and Kakhovka. If we include the international rallies, then Kakhovka is replaced by Germany.

• Germany (Berlin specifically) was the most common foreign location named in pro-Kremlin channel messages that mentioned rallies supporting Russia with the Russian flag.

• IntelSlava, EurasianChoice, and UkrWarRep shared the most messages, whether we limited the dataset to locations within Ukraine or expanded the dataset to include supportive rallies globally.

Extremist and conspiracy groups share pro-Russian rallies

• QAnon followers and extremist groups shared content showing either Russian success or support for Russia globally.

• Nick Fuentes, realJohnQuent, Qthestormrider777, BandofBrothersQ, and TrumpIntel, forwarded messages showing the pro-Russian support in Germany directly from IntelSlava.

• WhiteLivesMatter818 referenced the German rallies saying:

"I advise you to note, Jews who live in Israel, Germany make passes with Russian flags on their cars every day. They don't give a fuck that their babin yar were bombed by the Russians. Israel didn't give Ukraine any weapons, so they don't give a fuck. And the January 1 march in honor of Stepan Bandera's birthday was sued and told it was Nazi."

Contextual details

• The messages are in English, which may indicate an effort to reach a foreign audience and not Ukrainians.

• The show of support at rallies is distinct from flag-raising in Ukrainian cities, so we examined the data separately and together.

Trends in messaging

It seems like videos showing Russian flags raised in Ukrainian cities precede Russia actually taking the cities or after losing control of a city as with Kherson. There may be no relationship and there are plenty of limitations to this analysis.

• Messaging about Mariupol increased in late March and early April. This comes as Mariupol hangs in the balance. Deaths in Mariupol may have reached as many as 20,000, according to estimates given to CNN:

"The Mariupol situation makes it difficult to comment on the number of casualties, the city is under siege and blockaded," Pavlo Kyrylenko, the head of the Donetsk regional military administration, told CNN. "We are currently discussing 20,000 to 22,000 people dead in Mariupol."

• There was a cluster of messaging about Kherson and Kakhovka early in the invasion.

• Kherson also appeared in messaging in early April. The city was reportedly under Russian control in early March, and then, in late March, there were conflicting reports about Russians losing control of Kherson. The Telegraph reported on April 11:

Russian soldiers have torn down the Ukrainian flag flying above Kherson's main administrative building and raised Russia's tricolour, reflecting increasingly aggressive rhetoric coming from the Kremlin that Ukraine should be wiped off the map. On Sunday, an online video emerged showing a handful of men standing in the central square in Kherson waving Russian flags and looking bored.

• On April 10, Interfax-Ukraine stated:

As a result of a failed offensive, the Russian occupying troops suffered losses in a company task force in Kherson region near the village of Oleksandrivka, adviser to the President's Office head Oleksiy Arestovych said.

• On April 11, the General Staff of the Armed Forces wrote on Facebook that Russian troops continue to make attempts to improve their situation regarding Kherson.

Mentions grouped by the location

Hoaxlines collected data from a set of known pro-Kremlin and Russian state-affiliated Telegram channels. Mariupol and Kherson were the most-mentioned locations. Kakhovka was a distant third, mentioned fewer than half as many times.

When we look at the messages showing support for Russia internationally, Germany emerges as the most mentioned location and the third most mentioned location overall. Other locations mentioned with either image, video, or mentions of the Russian flag include Cyprus, Serbia, France, Burkina Faso, and Israel.

Mentioned grouped by the channel sharing the message

We grouped the messages by channels sharing them. Whether we limited the data to flag-raisings in Ukraine or included the rallies in support of Russia internationally, the channels sharing the most messages changed very little.

Including the international rallies in support of Russia added new channels. Still, the same channels sharing the flag-raising content about places in Ukraine also posted about the rallies supporting Russia, so their rankings did not change.  

Selection Criteria for messages

• Telegram message or post

• posted or sent in 2022

• mentions or shows a Russian flag being raised in Ukraine 

OR

• mentions or shows a rally in support of Russia with the Russian flag 

Did we miss a Telegram message?

If we have missed a qualifying message, please fill out this form, and if it meets the criterion, it will be added to the database.

Submit a Telegram post

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1

Appendix

Table showing data used in this report.

Summary and context

Hoaxlines found accounts that had pushed false claims about the 2009 Swine Flu and the vaccine against it had also promoted Russian state media and pro-Kremlin narratives and disinformation years later.1

Although these accounts’ behavior and traits suggested inauthenticity and some exclusively spread false information, some remain active on the platform today [5–9]. Some users fell dormant, active only between 2009 and 2010, but others, like the example in this report, spread content and claims likely intended to influence real users [6, 10–14].

We encountered the focus of this case study while collecting data for a retrospective longitudinal study. The example user—data from others will be released in a subsequent report— posted content, stances, and it behaved similar to accounts found in past, confirmed information operations [15–19]. Hoaxlines found the case study account had in the past 24 to 48 hours (April 7 to 9):

• Attempted to deflect blame from Russia for the brutal slaughter of Ukrainian civilians in Bucha, Ukraine [20].

• Shared an Iranian state-media article while claiming the United States is responsible for the deaths of Ukrainians because it has supplied weapons to Ukraine [21].

• Shared Russian state-controlled content that claimed that Ukrainian soldiers were using civilians as human shields and accused Ukraine of taking food away from people in Donbas. The accusation is a particularly dark assertion given Russia’s history of killing millions of Ukrainians via intentional starvation [22,23].

• Accused Jewish people of instigating World War 3 and asserted that Zelensky is responsible for the deaths of any Ukrainian male because he “ordered” them “to become combatants.”

  

• Posted “This is a war, a US war against Russia. Why? Because the US is NATO. What is NATO? NATO is a Horribles Parade costume, it’s a Halloween mask,” with an article from Iranian-state media.

• Claimed that new variants were endangering Americans because the US government gave (sic) “Billions to a bunch of Neo-Nazi's and a Zionist Puppet in Ukraine.”

The cost of a failure to act

Had the account been removed in 2010 when it promoted conspiracy theories about the Swine flu and the vaccine to prevent it, it would not be on the platform to help the Kremlin sow confusion and avoid accountability for war crimes [24–26]. EUvsDisinfo wrote on April 7 [20]:

The Kremlin is trying to occupy the information space by flooding it with contradicting “explanations” of the events. The goal is not only to deflect the blame for this particular atrocity against peaceful civilians but also to pre-emptively shape narratives for countering and discrediting any evidence or investigation into Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

Hoaxlines has previously reported that suspensions do not appear to and perhaps cannot change the behavior of accounts [27,28]. Disciplinary action cannot cause a genuine user to materialize. Thus this response has little chance of being effective with type of account.

Examples of content

Here are examples of content from the case study subject that made it identifiable as an inauthentic account over a decade ago:

• Swine flu (H1N1) and the vaccine

• Bill Gates conspiracy theories

• Dengue fever

• Julian Assange

• Syria and chemical weapons use

• Monsanto conspiracies

• GMOs

• Ebola virus

• The downing of MH17

• Invasion of Crimea

• John McCain and ISIS

• Everything is George Soros’ fault

• Hilary Clinton’s emails

• Zika virus and the vaccine

• COVID origin

• Sputnik V (Russian COVID vaccine) is the best

• NATO is out to get Russia

• Bioweapons in Ukraine (2022)

• Anti-semitism and Azov

• Bucha Massacre denial

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References

1. Watts C. Russia’s Disinformation Ecosystem. In: Selected Wisdom [Internet]. 2021 [cited 10 Dec 2021]. Available: https://clintwatts.substack.com/p/russias-disinformation-ecosystem?s=r

2. Watts C. Russia’s Propaganda & Disinformation Ecosystem. In: Selected Wisdom [Internet]. 2022 [cited 10 Dec 2021]. Available: https://clintwatts.substack.com/p/russias-propaganda-and-disinformation?s=r

3. United States Government. Treasury escalates sanctions against the Russian Government’s attempts to influence U.s. elections. In: U.S. Department of the Treasury [Internet]. 2021 [cited 10 Apr 2022]. Available: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0126

4. Merchant N. US accuses financial website of spreading Russian propaganda. In: Associated Press [Internet]. 15 Feb 2022 [cited 10 Apr 2022]. Available: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-coronavirus-pandemic-health-moscow-media-ff4a56b7b08bcdc6adaf02313a85edd9

5. Broniatowski DA, Jamison AM, Qi S, AlKulaib L, Chen T, Benton A, et al. Weaponized Health Communication: Twitter Bots and Russian Trolls Amplify the Vaccine Debate. Am J Public Health. 2018;108: 1378–1384.

6. Prier J. Social Media as Information Warfare. Strategic Studies Quarterly. 2017;11: 50–85.

7. Sheridan K. Spot the bot: Researchers open-source tools to hunt Twitter bots. In: Dark Reading [Internet]. 6 Aug 2018 [cited 7 Oct 2021]. Available: https://www.darkreading.com/threat-intelligence/spot-the-bot-researchers-open-source-tools-to-hunt-twitter-bots

8. Dotto C. How to spot a bot (or not): The main indicators of online automation, coordination, and inauthentic activity. 28 Nov 2019 [cited 7 Oct 2021]. Available: https://firstdraftnews.org/articles/how-to-spot-a-bot-or-not-the-main-indicators-of-online-automation-co-ordination-and-inauthentic-activity/

9. Nimmo B. #BotSpot: Twelve ways to spot a bot. In: DFR Lab [Internet]. 28 Aug 2017 [cited 7 Oct 2021]. Available: https://medium.com/dfrlab/botspot-twelve-ways-to-spot-a-bot-aedc7d9c110c

10. Gamberini SJ. Social Media Weaponization: The Biohazard of Russian Disinformation Campaigns. Joint Force Quarterly. 2020;5: 99.

11. Weinberg D, Dawson J. Military Narratives and Profiles in Russian Influence Operations on Twitter. 2021. doi:10.31235/osf.io/b9a2m

12. Shao C, Ciampaglia GL, Varol O, Yang K-C, Flammini A, Menczer F. The spread of low-credibility content by social bots. Nat Commun. 2018;9: 4787.

13. Galeano K, Galeano R, Al-Khateeb S, Agarwal N. Studying the Weaponization of Social Media: Case Studies of Anti-NATO Disinformation Campaigns. Lecture Notes in Social Networks. 2020. pp. 29–51. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-41251-7_2

14. Onyango E. Kenyan influencers paid to take “guerrilla warfare” online. BBC. 12 Sep 2021. Available: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58474936. Accessed 15 Feb 2022.

15. Information Operations Archive. In: Information Operations Archive [Internet]. 2019 [cited 10 Apr 2022]. Available: https://www.io-archive.org/#/

16. Anise O, Wright J. Anatomy of Twitter Bots: Amplification Bots. In: Duo Labs [Internet]. 2018 [cited 6 Dec 2021]. Available: https://duo.com/labs/research/anatomy-of-twitter-bots-amplification-bots

17. Wild J, Godart C. Spotting bots, cyborgs and inauthentic activity. In: DataJournalism.com [Internet]. 13 Mar 2020 [cited 10 Apr 2022]. Available: https://datajournalism.com/read/handbook/verification-3/investigating-actors-content/3-spotting-bots-cyborgs-and-inauthentic-activity

18. Looft C. Anatomy of an Anti-Muslim Influence Operation. In: First Draft [Internet]. 4 Jun 2021 [cited 10 Apr 2022]. Available: https://firstdraftnews.org/articles/anti-muslim-disinformation-israel-palestine/

19. Pavliuc A. DisInfoVis: How to Understand Networks of Disinformation Through Visualization. In: Towards Data Science [Internet]. 25 Sep 2020 [cited 20 Sep 2021]. Available: https://towardsdatascience.com/disinfovis-how-to-understand-networks-of-disinformation-through-visualization-b4cb0afa0a71

20. EUvsDISINFO. Disinformation to Conceal War Crimes: Russia is Lying About Atrocities in Bucha. In: EU vs DISINFORMATION [Internet]. 7 Apr 2022 [cited 10 Apr 2022]. Available: https://euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation-to-conceal-war-crimes-russia-is-lying-about-atrocities-in-bucha/

21. Watts C. Iran’s Disinformation Ecosystem: A Snapshot. In: Selected Wisdom [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2022]. Available: https://clintwatts.substack.com/p/irans-disinformation-ecosystem-a?s=r

22. Rudnytskyi O, Levchuk N, Wolowyna O, Shevchuk P, Kovbasiuk A. Demography of a Man-Made Human Catastrophe: the Case of Massive Famine in Ukraine 1932–1933. MAPA Digital Atlas of Ukraine Project Ukrainian Research Institute. 2015 [cited 10 Apr 2022]. Available: https://gis.huri.harvard.edu/demography-man-made-human-catastrophe

23. Sebryn R. Holodomor: The Ukrainian Genocide. PISM Series. 2010; 205–230.

24. Seitz A, Lajka A. Amid horror in Bucha, Russia relies on propaganda and disinformation. In: PBS NewsHour [Internet]. 6 Apr 2022 [cited 10 Apr 2022]. Available: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/amid-horror-in-bucha-russia-relies-on-propaganda-and-disinformation

25. Li E. Russia Likely behind Viral Twitter Thread Claiming Ukrainians Torturing Each Other; Thread Shared By Western Far Left and Far Right Figures. In: Global Influence Operations Report [Internet]. 2022 [cited 25 Mar 2022]. Available: https://www.global-influence-ops.com/russia-likely-behind-viral-twitter-thread-claiming-ukrainians-torturing-each-other-thread-shared-by-western-far-left-and-far-right-figures/

26. Abbruzzese J, Collins B. Russian disinformation, propaganda ramp up as conflict in Ukraine grows. In: NBC News [Internet]. 24 Feb 2022 [cited 10 Apr 2022]. Available: https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/internet/russian-disinformation-propaganda-ramp-conflict-ukraine-grows-rcna17521

27. conspirator0. A website where you can buy fake Twitter followers. In: Twitter [Internet]. 27 Mar 2022 [cited 9 Apr 2022]. Available:

28. NovelSci. A finding of interest was that accounts that boosted claims about Ukrainians being Nazis also denied the Bucha Massacre. This demonstrates the cost of failing to remove these accounts. They do not stop and do not alter behavior after temporary bans. They continue until banned.

Cover photo sources from the case study subject’s tweet.

The timeline

The first posts on Twitter alleging that soldiers surrendered in Mariupol were posted at 9:48 AM and 9:58 AM CST. Levi_godman threaded a conversation where the user indicated they were waiting for video confirmation and then linked to WarGonzo as evidence.

Both posts came shortly after a message (9:46 AM CST) from WarGonzo on Telegram. WarGonzo stated that a battalion of marines had surrendered in Mariupol, estimating 200 soldiers like the Tweet. No Batallion was mentioned in the WarGonzo post.

• Levi_godman references 200 soldiers saying, “Ukrainian marines of the 501st separate battalion of the Marine Corps of the Ukrainian Navy surrendered in Mariupol in full, at that time more than 200 people.”

• The Twitter user small_float referenced a “501 AFU marines battalion” and estimated 200 like the WarGonzo post.

In this message, WarGonzo cites Dmitry Sablin as a source. Sablin has since deleted his Telegram message, but source code from an incomplete archive shows that Sablin’s message read, “A battalion of Ukrainian marines surrendered.”

• Sablin mentions no unit number or soldier count in the now-deleted message, according to the archive. The archiving time is 15:50:06 April 4, 2022, translating into 9:50 AM CST.

As evidence, the WarGonzo post cites the head of the Combat Brotherhood in a way that sounds like it could be a second individual and not Dmitry Sablin, implying that there were two sources. A review of earlier Telegram messages shows that this post references only Sablin, as he is both the head of the Combat Brotherhood and the Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee. Sablin’s Telegram channel also describes him as “Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, First Deputy Chairman of the All-Russian Organization ‘Battle Brotherhood.’”

A tweet from RWAPodcast (10:02 AM CST) references a “501st Marine Battalion” that surrendered. Hoaxlines found RWAPodcast was the most retweeted user in Hoaxlines’ Bucha Massacre denial tweets for the search term “Azov.”

No soldier count was given in RWApodcast’s tweet, but we did find another reported source for the claims. The WarGonzo post only cited Dmitry Sablin. The only Telegram message we could find—there’s a missing message between No. 10685 and 10683, although it can still be accessed by direct link and does not seem to be about soldier surrenders— about surrenders from Bezsonov was written at 1:32 PM CST:

The military of the DPR, who took the prisoners, declare that the decision of the military personnel of the 36th BMP of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to surrender was influenced both by the hopeless situation that threatened their destruction, and the processing that was constantly carried out through open communication channels, via radio and with the help of leaflets.

The substance of Bezsonov’s message differs from the others because it identifies the soldiers as the military personnel of the 36th BMP of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Bezsonov also credits an earlier propaganda campaign with getting the surrender.

• On March 29, Bezsonov forwarded a post that showed “propaganda shells,” which look like large bullets stuffed with leaflets that tell soldiers to surrender for use in Mariupol.

• Bezsonov wrote about the surrender in a post published at 1:32 PM CST on April 4, 2022.

• A post from 4:14 PM CST from the pro-Russian DPR official listed WarGonzo among recommended sources.

Telegram messages making similar claims

• The channel Zluchka Tactical posted a video of the alleged Ukrainian marines at 12:46 PM CST. The number of soldiers is 264 in this post.

• The pro-Kremlin channel Intel Slava Z posted that 264 soldiers had surrendered in Mariupol at 12:49 PM CST.

• Then, at 1:04 PM CST, Intel Slava Z reported that “267 marines from the 503rd battalion” surrendered, which differs from the 501st Battalion first reported in Levi_godman’s and small_float’s tweets.

• At 1:06 PM CST, the pro-Kremlin channel “Swodki” posted the same as the most recent Intel Slava Z post, saying, “Video of 267 Marines of the Naval Forces of Ukraine from the 503rd separate Battalion who surrendered to our troops. Mariupol today.”

• Kremlin propaganda outlet News Front repeated the claims from Swodki at 1:10 PM CST, saying, “Video of 267 Marines of the Ukrainian Navy from the 503rd separate battalion who surrendered.”

• Intel Slava Z posted about this story at 1:25 PM CST, switching the battalion number for a second time. “501st separate battalion of the Marine Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surrendered. Made smart choices and saved their lives.”

Intel Slava’s second post departed from the earlier posts, which gave a different number of soldiers and different regiments.

Hoaxlines found many new accounts boosting tweets about the surrender, although this does not necessarily indicate veracity. The accounts hyperlinked in the previous sentence retweeted the same tweet from a popular OSINT account, but the Kremlin has historically amplified true, advantageous stories and disinformation ones. While we’ve included the detail for research value, the finding does not indicate whether the claims are true or false.

Other evidence

With Mariupol cut off from humanitarian aid and communication in some cases, we don’t have a precise understanding of what is happening within the city. Tweets related to the surrender video fail to clarify the claims, which vary depending on the source. That said, here are additional details and commentary to consider.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy also told soldiers they could abandon the city around March 27, but the officers refused because they did not want to leave the dead and wounded comrades and civilians behind. Ukraine rejected an ultimatum from Russia to surrender Mariupol about a week before that.

In a March 2022 address, Zelenskyy thanked the 501st Battalion, indicating they were present in Mariupol. Zelenskyy makes no mention of a 503rd Battalion.

Today I want to express my sincere gratitude to each defender of our strong Mariupol. Our heroic city, which is experiencing the greatest ordeal in its history, in the history of Ukraine.

36th Separate Marine Brigade.

501st Separate Marine Battalion.

1st Separate Marine Battalion.

12th Brigade of the National Guard.

And a separate detachment of special purpose "Azov.”

Illia Ponomarenko of the Kyiv Independent reported that the 503rd Battalion denied that they had surrendered. The problem with this denial is that in some of the posts, it is the 501st Battalion that surrendered. We did not find any reported correspondence from or with the 501st. Hoaxlines wrote to Ponomarenko on April 5 to ask if he had any information about the 501st. We will update the report if we receive a response.

A British national who has served with the Ukrainian military for several years is currently in Mariupol. He posted on Twitter that the video does show the 501st Battalion, “This is real just FYI, 501st marine battalion.”

Cossackgundi did not offer the friend’s name or the identified soldier, which would allow for outside confirmation, but the friend may wish to remain unidentified.

Former Navy Seal Chuck Pfarrer, who has trained NATO forces in Europe, assessed the video and created a widely circulated graphic outlining why he does not believe the video is real.

Many of the objections raised by Pfarrer come down to practice. He points out items that captured soldiers should not be allowed to keep and other military malpractice. Still, the performance of the Russian military throughout this invasion makes it seem plausible that they would overlook such basic security measures.

Hoaxlines found unconfirmed reports that as many as four soldiers were identified as Ukrainian in the video. In no case were names or images provided for comparison, so the claims remain unsupported. Other details raised to question the video include that some of the soldiers appear to be wearing white sneakers, though Ukrainian soldiers could have changed their shoes at some point.

The soldiers’ clean appearance has been voiced as a reason to challenge the video’s authenticity, but there have been instances of soldiers remaining relatively clean throughout this war. These details may be the product of motivated reasoning when we support our existing belief with details we offer as evidence, but that alone would not lead us to our conclusion.

Hoaxlines remains undecided but also sees a third option

Rather than a true or false determination, it is possible that some aspects of the video are true and some are false. For example, the video could show Ukrainian soldiers captured at an earlier time or another location. Russia could pad the video with Russian “extras” mixed in with Ukrainian soldiers to make the surrender appear larger.

An anonymous Ukrainian in regular communication with people still in Ukraine suspected that the soldiers had been captured elsewhere and moved to Mariupol to be “paraded” for the video. Hoaxlines requested any sources or evidence the person could provide on April 5, and we will update if we receive any response.

The video first circulated with pro-Kremlin accounts, but this doesn’t help show whether the video is authentic because this is the type of event that pro-Kremlin accounts would promote either way. Rapid circulation amongst pro-Kremlin accounts may indicate coordination in spreading the story, which would increase the chances the story was “spun” somehow.

Pro-Kremlin actors are still attempting to erode the morale of those within Mariupol. Intel Slava released pictures showing Ukrainian marines subjected to the TOS-1 flamethrower. Efforts to influence soldiers have been present for the duration of the Russian invasion, and there is no reason to suspect they have ceased now.

A partial truth seems most likely given the existing evidence but Hoaxlines has decided not to draw a conclusion based on the relative scarcity of evidence, potential alternate explanations, and the gravity of the situation, which warrants a careful assessment. We ascertained that Mariupol has not fallen into Russian hands and that whoever remains in the city, soldier or civilian, is still fighting.

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Data collection shows new accounts boosting Bucha Massacre denial and pro-Kremlin narratives

Hoaxlines collected the most recent 100,000 tweets for the query “Bucha” on April 3, 2022. The majority of tweets expressed outrage at the atrocities that took place in Bucha, which include a mass killing revealed by a mass grave. Examples of recent accounts denying the Bucha Massacre or boosting disinformation about Ukraine have been included in the report.

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Early in the war we saw nearly 1000 Russian deaths per day, according to estimates from the Ukrainian government. Although the numbers were so high as to lead some to doubt their accuracy, Western intelligence reported that Russian losses were as much as 1000 soldiers per day on March 20, 2022. The estimate suggests that the Ukrainians early reports may be accurate. Our estimate should not supersede credible sources and reliable reporting. It is more an exercise in examining reporting on Russian losses thus far and what we can learn from it. 

From the start of the war until March 8–day 12 of the Russian invasion–the Ukrainians report around 1000 Russian losses per day. On the 9th, Russia bombed the maternity hospital and began striking more blatantly civilian targets like a drama theatre with the word “children” drawn on the sidewalk. The barbarity of their actions and the increasingly dire situation juxtaposed against the tenacity shown by the Ukrainian forces, makes it difficult to believe that there were no Russian deaths from March 8 to March 14, although the estimates stay at 12,000 through those dates.  

The recent estimates hover around 300 Russian losses per day, but it’s unclear what their methodology is, whether it’s changed, and how they account for deaths that may occur beyond their ability to confirm. Still, 300 is the lowest consistent rate aside from days with no change.

• If we assume 300 losses per day to be the lowest rate of loss for the war and the high-end estimate to be 1000, then we get a possible range of 8,100 to 27,000 deaths. 

• If from that we estimate the wounded number to be twice that of the deaths, then the total casualties may be as high as 54,000.

We used two times the number of deaths because the confirmed losses more closely resemble those of the Civil War-era than modern warfare, the soldiers’ limited situational awareness and lack of experience, and the logistics are not being in place for the Russian military to save people with survivable injuries. The United States has seen the injury-to-death ratio from 10:1 to 17:1 in modern conflicts, and NATO used 3:1 in its recent estimate.

Timeline for reported Russian losses 

Feb 24 - 0 - Start of full-scale war

War starts with Russia offensive attack 

Feb 27 - 4300 - 3 days

March 2 - 5,840 - 6 days

March 3 - 9,000  – 7 days 

March 4 - 9,166 - 8 days 

March 5 - 10,000 - 9 days 

March 6 - 11,000 - 10 days 

March 7 - 11,000 - 11 days 

March 8 - 12,000 - 12 days 

On March 9, Russia began hitting civilian targets like the maternity hospital in Mariupol.

March 10 - 12,000 - 14 days 

March 11 - 12,000 - 15 days

March 12 - 12,000 - 16 days

March 14 - 12,000 - 18 days 

Six days pass with no reported change after previously adding nearly a 1000 per day.

March 16 - 13,800 - 20 days 

March 17 - 14,000 - 21 days 

March 18 - 14,200 - 22 days 

March 19 - 14,400 - 23 days

March 20 - 14,700 - 24 days

Western intelligence estimates Russia has lost up to 1000 soldiers per day, which fits with the estimates made by the Ukrainians prior to March 10. 

March 21 - 15,000 - 25 days

March 22 - 15,300 - 26 days

March 23 - 15,600 - 27 days

NATO estimates that 40,000 Russian soldiers have gone missing, been injured, or been killed in 27 days, calculating based on Ukrainian estimates for killed-in-action.

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NOTE: This is a working paper and has only been published early to prevent false narratives from spreading.

Updated: Shortly after 9 pm ET, Twitter suspended one of the accounts spreading the graphic disinformation videos, but the narrative was allowed to spread long after Twitter became aware of the account. The platform had deleted other earlier posts.

Update-2: Twitter suspended another account in this report. The original poster of the videos is telling people in the Telegram channel to post the videos from Telegram to Twitter.

Updated-3: Multiple suspended accounts have been reinstated on Twitter and are engaging in coordinated amplification of false narratives about Ukraine.

Videos claim to show Ukrainians torturing each other

A thread claiming to show Ukrainians mercilessly beating men, women, and children has gone viral. That Ukrainians could even be outside their homes with the non-stop shelling beggars belief. Still, I found a lot of questionable details about this account and the post, followers, and retweeters.

Account history

Archive history shows the user claimed to be from Scotland earlier but has since removed that from the profile. The account used to have a listed name that looked something like “Elon Musk,” at which point it promoted links for “eloninvest.org.” The account went dormant for a years-long period, as is common with inauthentic accounts.

The user is clearing 400 tweets per day, with the majority of tweets in support of pro-Kremlin narratives. This is an exceptionally high number of tweets, especially from an account that had no tweets for years before this.

TruthNest assesses the account as highly active and highly influential. Content from this user may be designed to reduce support for Ukrainians by portraying them as Nazis or violent. EUvsDisinfo covered “denazification” as one of the key long-term narratives for the Kremlin. The crisis actor claims didn’t work out, so maybe this is trying something new.

All of the user’s most popular tweets promote the idea that "the media" are conspiring to lie about what is happening in Ukraine. Almost all of the user’s tweets are pro-Kremlin. Genuine users — even when they are zealous activists — rarely focus on a singular topic like this. A "sole tweeting purpose" is a recognized indicator of inauthentic activity.

The percentage of activity from this account from replies is unusually high. Sometimes this can mean the account is a "reply guy.” Whether “the media” report on this or not, we can see what is happening in Ukraine from satellite.

A pinned tweet is a new pro-Kremlin OSINT account

The author of the pinned tweet is new and appears to be an OSINT account, possibly to gain traction using the popularity of OSINT accounts in gaining independent intelligence on the war.

The user has a backup account listed in the user’s bio. Already the account was suspended for Ukraine disinformation. It used a backup account to evade the ban and did so openly. Ban evasion is a policy violation so this account remaining online is disappointing.

Following and Followers

The account follows multiple Russian state media outlets and also employees, but used to appear to be from Scotland. Today it follows Spanish-language Russian state propaganda channels and hosts and is exceptionally focused on the situation in Ukraine—especially how much people don’t approve of Russian aggression. Additionally, the account follows a host from Iranian state TV and an account for the so-called People’s Republic of Lugansk.

Retweeters

Perhaps the most relevant connection is that an early retweeter of the torture videos also retweeted the account that seeded the maternity hospital disinformation narrative in the days before the attack (possibly suggesting foreknowledge) and spread false claims about one of the victims after the bombing. Russia has now repeated the pattern of claiming a location is a military base, bombing it, and then sowing incoherent narratives about what happened.

Some of the earliest accounts interact with the thread by tagging news outlets or highly influential figures in far-right politics or anti-vaccine movements. Another user who quote tweeted one of the disinformation tweets is posting about Lia Thomas, a transgender athlete, and vaccine requirements.

Older posts showing the torture content had been removed, but Twitter has allowed some of the accounts posting this content to increase and spread doubt about the claims of people being killed in Ukraine. It’s clear Twitter is aware of the account because it has removed other posts with similar videos.

One account that retweeted the original thread had a Telegram channel, so I looked at it.

Account has a preference for Russian state-affiliated author

The retweeter’s Telegram channel shares content from Andrew Korybko, who writes for at least a dozen Russian-state affiliated outlets, including Sputnik News to OneWorld.Press.1

The Telegram post link is an outlet recognized as controlled by the GRU. One World had the InfoRos logo in its directory. The GRU controls InfoRos. The US Treasury said of InfoRos:

The GRU operates InfoRos. InfoRos calls itself a news agency but is primarily run by the GRU’s 72nd Main Intelligence Information Center (GRITs). GRITs is a unit within Russia’s Information Operations Troops, which is identified as Russia’s military force for conducting cyber espionage, influence, and offensive cyber operations. InfoRos operates under two organizations, “InfoRos, OOO” and “IA InfoRos.”

Denazification narrative

Korybko circulated false claims about denazification recently. He’s still on Facebook spreading pro-Kremlin disinformation but should have been removed a long time ago for promoting 2020 election disinformation. At least two of these outlets are linked to Russian intelligence.

The channel is spreading disinformation about the Syrian use of chemical weapons and sharing content from authors affiliated that work for Russian-state media and an outlet affiliated with the GRU. The channel link history shows content from Global Research and Grayzone. Tribune.com.pk frequently published Russian state-affiliated authors.

Time is of the essence, so I'm sharing this now.

Twitter thread based on this report

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Tucker Carlson’s March 9, 2022 show included claims, clips, and presentation that was remarkably similar to what RT published on the same day. The claims made were false or misleading and favored the Kremlin’s false presentation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in which Russia is indiscriminately killing civilians, including children. Carlson’s previous false claims about Ukraine have aired on Russian state-controlled media channels like RT and Fondsk.ru.

Comparing the claims of Tucker and RT

In the segment, Carlson says:

In 2014, Victoria Nuland engineered a coup in Ukraine in the name of democracy, of course. So, she is a highly informed source about Ukraine. So, she was having this colloquy with Senator Marco Rubio of Florida during her testimony, and at one point, Rubio took a tack that we were not expecting at all. He asked Nuland if Ukraine had biological weapons.  

Here, Carlson repeats a false claim about the US orchestrating a coup in 2014 that is not the segment's focus. The detail is given without qualification and is a lie also cited by the Kremlin as justification for its “security concerns.” A recent Sputnik article decried an alleged US-backed coup and cited the Ron Paul Institute, which repeated the false coup claim.

Carlson then presented partial evidence, leaving out critical details that make the situation appear suspicious. He explained the false bioweapons claims using the same talking points and footage as Russian state media earlier that day.

Carlson tees up Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) as asking something unimaginable and the answer as “shocking.” The answer is not shocking as it has been part of the public discussion in the science community.

CARLSON: We never imagined Ukraine would have biological weapons. Why would Ukraine have bioweapons? So, it seemed like a pretty strange question, but it wasn't half as shocking as the answer he got.

Using the same framing as RT, Carlson implies that research facilities’ existence is somehow shocking and scandalous, but their existence is public record, as is their purpose.

After the misleading coup statements and statements implying a public program was scandalous, Carlson aired the Russian Defense Minister spokesperson whose claims Tucker had supported with clips and selective details.

For context, the Defense Minister is shown here claiming the US will use migratory birds to spread pathogens from Ukraine to Russia, evoking the birds-aren’t-real conspiracy.

Carlson also featured Chinese Foreign Minister Zhao Lijian, who spoke of the laboratories as revelatory.

ZHAO LIJIAN: Over the past two decades, the United States has been blocking the establishment of a verification regime to the Biological Weapons Convention and refused to accept the inspection of biological facilities within and outside its borders. The move has further aggravated the concern of the international community. We, once again, urge the U.S. to provide full clarification of its bio militarization activities within and outside its borders and accept multilateral verification.

The US has already clarified this, but the claim seems like the US has hidden this information. Russia and China are both blasting the narrative through their state-controlled propaganda machines.

The only bioweapons are the ones the Soviets made.

The facilities referenced by RT and Tucker Carlson do not create bioweapons but were established to secure illegally created Soviet bioweapons.

Ukraine’s inclusion in the list of countries partaking in this threat reduction program is public, as is the nuclear threat reduction program established around the same time. The aims and the countries in the program are public record and have public-facing websites that explain what they do.

The US biological weapons program was terminated by executive order under US President Nixon on November 25, 1969. The US, Russia, and other countries then signed a treaty in 1972 where countries agreed not to pursue these weapons of mass destruction. The biological weapons and research that now reside in Ukraine were illegal weapons produced by the Soviet Union.

The US had been trying to curb and eliminate biological weapons when the Soviet fell, and that presented the opportunity. Russian President Boris Yeltsin admitted to having, and he allegedly —many have doubted the program ended, although Yeltsin committed to it— downsized the Soviet biological weapons program in 1992.

The US-funded program is a successful, now-30-year endeavor to secure Soviet bioweapons in Ukraine that also helped Soviet scientists to transition into peaceful work. In the first two decades, the program helped around 70,000 weapons scientists.

Where did the story originate?

Cyber Berkut, a group identified by UK intelligence as a front for the GRU, published the false Ukrainian bioweapon story in 2017. A similar story involving Georgia, a country Russia invaded in 2008, dates back to 2011.

Milton Leitenberg, a long-time researcher at the Center for International and Security Studies and the author of “Assessing the Biological Weapons and Bioterrorism Threat,” has written about the progression of biological weapons disinformation stories. Leitenberg described the 2011 piece as written by “a Georgian journalist, Joni Simonishvili, in Geonews, a Russian proxy disinformation” who “turned to the Lugar Center in earnest.”

In 2013, the Georgian story had taken shape; by 2017, the story had shifted toward Ukraine. The story appeared days after the Cyber Berkut article in TASS, a Russian state-controlled news outlet, and then later in early 2018 on the FSB-controlled outlet South Front by Dilyana Gaytandzhieva.

Gaytandzhieva was the credited author of an investigative-style version of the GRU story from 2017. She also promoted the same false claims in 2022, connecting the 2022 narrative to the claims made in 2017 and 2018.

• Gaytandzhieva identified the story as one and the same as her 2018 article, which she linked in a tweet in early 2022.

• The story has stayed remarkably unchanged. Stories generally evolve.

• Gaytandzhieva appeared on Chinese state media related to her false biological weapons claims. China promoted the false claims alongside the Russian state in early March 2022.

• Leitenberg said of the Ukrainian “biolabs” narrative, “This is ALL KGB/FSB work.”

How do we know these outlets are state-controlled?

The outlets mentioned in this report and linked sources are as follows:

• Fondsk.ru

• RT News

• Sputnik News

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Hoaxlines has divided the report into four sections for ease of reading and organization. Part 2 is the section that is likely of most interest to readers as the analysis of the recent Russian and Chinese content appears here.

Part 1: The history of the bioweapons disinformation narratives and what is fact or fiction.

Hoaxlines

Russia and China resurrect disinformation rooted in Soviet-era active measures

Russia and China have been using official government accounts to spread false claims about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. False claims implying or asserting that the US has biological weapons in Ukraine are not new. In the 1980s Russian disinformation suggested the US created the HIV virus…

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4 years ago · Hoaxlines

Part 2: Russia’s changing story and closely timed, mirroring claims from Russia and China.

Hoaxlines

Russia changed its story about bioweapons. Then Russia and China flooded the world with disinformation.

Similar messages dramatically increased from both Russia and China at the same time On March 6, state-controlled accounts belonging to Russia and China increased the number of posts they published referencing a Ukraine-US bioweapons conspiracy. The increases may reflect some formal coordination in information operations, given that the increases were bo…

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4 years ago · Hoaxlines

Part 3: The Ukraine-US-Bioweapon narrative is similar to the conspiracy claims about COVID-19.

Hoaxlines

False Ukraine-bioweapons claims from Russia and China echoes their COVID-19 disinformation

Bioweapon conspiracy theories about Ukraine are reminiscent of the claims promoted, especially by Russia and China, in 2020 and 2021. Iran was a distant third-biggest contributor or amplifier of disinformation. Hoaxlines found it had posted about the US-made bioweapons claim…

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4 years ago · Hoaxlines

Part 4: Clippings from the state-controlled media about the bioweapon disinformation from China and Russia.

Hoaxlines

Russia and China synchronize on false Ukraine-bioweapon conspiracy claims

Russia produces the most content by a large margin. The first two largest producers of state-controlled media are RT and Sputnik News, which have been blocked in the EU by Meta. Meta promised in 2020 that it would stop allowing state-controlled outlets to advertise but its words have been somewhat hollow. Twitter…

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4 years ago · Hoaxlines

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Translation:

“We are conducting a series of [active] measures in connection with the appearance in recent years in the USA of a new and dangerous disease, “Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome – AIDS”…, and its subsequent, large-scale spread to other countries, including those in Western Europe.”

—handwritten letter by Soviet KGB agent September 1985

Disinformation efforts continued after the fall of the Soviets in the early 1990s. While not all headlines reflect active measures, it’s remarkable how they build upon one another over time.

2002 to 2003

• Russian experts say SARS was made in a lab

• SARS - A Great Global SCAM

2005

• Avian Flu another Pentagon Hoax?

• The Pentagon’s alarming project: Avian Flu Biowar Vaccine

• Bird Flu: A Corporate Bonanza for the Biotech Industry

2009

• The truth about the pandemic flu vaccines

• The Swine Flu Vaccine is part of the NWO's Depopulation Plan

• 2009 H1N1 Swine/Bird Flu 'Pandemic' Hysteria Part of NWO Population Reduction Agenda (March 30, 2012)

• Pandemic -- How they plan to deceive the Christians

2012

• Ebola Virus: The Global Elite's Bio-Weapon Scheme for 90 Percent Depopulation

• Ebola vaccine pioneer joked about use of genetically engineered virus to cull the human population

• Depopulation: Could a Speech From 8 Years Ago Hold the Key to the Rapid Spread of Ebola?

• Russia Developed the Ebola Vaccine

2016

• Russia Accuses Bill Gates Of Engineering The Zika Virus To Depopulate The World

  • The article, Bill Gates was involved in the artificial creation of the Zika epidemic in order to reduce the world’s population, appeared in Geopolitica.ru - Italian in 2020.

• The staged Zika pandemic was engineered by globalist governments to justify the aerial bombardment of awakening populations with toxic chemicals

• The Zika virus and the NWO depopulation agenda

• The war on fertility via the Forced Vaccination agenda: Enter the Zika Virus

2017

The narrative spread by Russian and Chinese accounts in March 2022 first appeared in 2017. A pro-Kremlin hacking collective called CyberBerkut (recognized as a GRU front organization) published the story, as did Russian state media Later, the FSB-controlled outlet SouthFront also published this false narrative. 

Zero Hedge, recently called out by the US government for boosting Kremlin content, also ran the story in 2018—although it has since been deleted.

The only bioweapons are the ones the Soviets made

Besides the Kremlin’s history of spreading false bioweapons claims, the other inaccuracy concerns existing laboratories in Ukraine that were created in cooperation with the United States. Far from creating bioweapons, these laboratories were created for securing the Soviet Union’s biological weapons, which it developed in violation of a treaty the Soviets had signed.

Indeed these clear violations on the convention were only admitted after the totalitarian regime collapsed and duplicity in politics was abandoned … The remnants of the offensive programs in the area of BW (biological weapons) were still around as recently as 1991. It was only in 1992 that Russia absolutely stopped this work.

General Kuntsevich, 19921

The Soviet Union was the nation that created the bioweapons that Russia’s actions now threaten to unleash—however small that risk may be—by indiscriminately bombing and attacking Ukraine. Were a pathogen to thaw, it might be able to multiply and infect a human. Such an outcome has the potential to cause global devastation. Russia both created and now risks unleashing the threat.